In this article, we’ll give you our top NBA Computer Pick for the Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks game on Tuesday, Jan. 21, 2020. These were the only two teams that didn’t play on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, so the extra rest should make this a very entertaining game.
Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks (-1.5/ML: -121)
Total: 232.5 (-112)
8:30 p.m. EST
American Airlines Center – Dallas, TX
NBA Computer Pick: Over 232.5 Points (-112)
The Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks got to sit at home yesterday while the rest of the NBA played out the famous Martin Luther King Jr. Day schedule. If the regular season ended today, these two teams would actually square off in the 4-5 seed matchup out West. Nonetheless, our top betting pick is for the total to go over 232.5 points. Let’s dive into the numbers to see why we’re heading in this direction.
NBA Betting Line: Clippers at Mavericks
There’s no doubt that this will be a close game. While Clippers took the first meeting by the score of 114-99, we expect to see a much closer game this time around. These are two of the top teams in offensive efficiency (DAL: 1st: 114.5, LAC: 5th: 109.8) so scoring points shouldn’t be an issue. However, there is a noticeable difference in defensive efficiency (DAL: 17th: 107.8, LAC: 8th: 104.6). Nonetheless, we expect it to be a tight high-scoring affair.
When the spread is in the range of -2.5 to +2 for the Mavs, they’re only 3-6 SU/ATS in that situation. In the same range, the Clippers are 3-3 SU/ATS. In so many terms, if the Mavs are giving up plenty of points, they’re probably going to match that output – or at least put up a good fight in doing so.
Clippers Betting Form
Paul George (hamstring) will miss his sixth consecutive game, and seventh in the last eight. In other injury news, albeit some that doesn’t matter as much, Maurice Harkless is expected to return to the lineup after a brief absence.
Even with the absence of George, the Clippers still have that daunted trio of Kawhi Leonard, Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell. Those three can all put the ball in the bucket, but George out of the rotation means that the Clippers’ defense takes a hit as well.
The Clippers have won five of their last six games but only have a 2-4 ATS record in that span – take a bit further, they’re 2-5 ATS over the last seven. The two outright-wins came as heavy favorites against the Cavs (-16) and Magic (-10), the latter of which was playing on the back-end of a B2B set.
It is worth noting, though, that Clippers’ games have gone under the total five times out of seven when they’ve been listed as underdogs. Not to mention, the total has gone over in 10 of the last 16 Clippers’ games, with a push in the mix as well.
Mavericks Betting Form
The Mavs had a full three days off before tonight’s game, winning the last one by the score of 120-112 over the Trail Blazers – a slight cover on the 7.5-point spread.
Believe it or not, the Mavs have a more well-balanced approach in this matchup. Luka Doncic will lead the charge as always, probably putting up close to a triple-double. Plus, guys like Jalen Brunson, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Seth Curry are capable of spacing the floor against a team like the Clippers. Speaking of LA – yes, that’s usually a solid defense. However, the numbers look a lot more refined over the last few games against lesser opponents.
Dallas is 7-2 SU with extended rest (2-4 days’ rest) this season, so look for them to take this extra time and get right against one of the NBA’s best teams. That impeccable mark has a lot to do with the coaching of Rick Carlisle. It’s worth noting, though, that the Mavs have a dreadful 2-7 SU/ATS record when the spread is -2.5 to +2.
Kristaps Porzingis (knee) is listed as questionable. If he does miss Tuesday’s game, that’ll mark the 11th straight time he sits out.
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NBA Computer Pick: Over 232.5 Points (-112)
We have two of the NBA’s top stars in Doncic and Leonard, so that will lead the charge in having plenty of points this evening. Doncic, in particular, is ready to make a serious name for himself in terms of getting the NBA’s MVP award. Look for him to make a dominant case with this being the only game on the NBA schedule tonight. The Clippers are a well-rounded team, but so are the Mavericks. This should be a great game to watch, and certainly one that we’ll be talking about for the rest of the week.