MLB Betting Tips for Thursday (9/5/19)

Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers

Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox

Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers

Time: 7:10 p.m. EST

Starting Pitchers

CHC: Jose Quintana – L (12-8, 3.90 ERA/1.28 WHIP)

MIL: Chase Anderson – R (6-4, 4.58 ERA/1.29 WHIP)

The Cubs currently own the second and final Wild Card spot in the National League, with the Brewers sitting four games behind them. Typically, the games between these teams don’t need a backstory to add intrigue, but with the playoffs approaching it’ll certainly help.

Odds Analysis: Chicago Cubs (-115)

The odds on this game haven’t moved one bit since the open. 63 percent of the public bets early are on the total going under, and that doesn’t make much sense considering the success of each offense against the starting pitchers in this matchup.

Cubs Betting Form

Jose Quintana has been rocked by the Brewers this season, allowing a massive 5.54 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 26 innings of work. What’s interesting is that most of that came in previous performances, as he did pitch 5 2/3 innings of shutout ball. Nonetheless, it’s extremely hard to succeed twice against a team in as many meetings.

After a solid opener to last week’s series, the Cubs were shutout in the final two games against the Brewers. They shouldn’t have that problem today, considering who the Brewers will have on the mound.

Brewers Betting Form

Chase Anderson got ripped by the Cubs in his last start for seven hits (two homers) and five runs over four innings en route to a 7-1 loss. This season, he’s allowed eight runs in eight innings of work against them. Not to mention, Anderson also had a recent outing getting ripped by the Nationals for nine hits (three homers) and 10 runs in only 2 1/3 innings.

The Brewers have scored four runs or fewer in 10 consecutive games, which is a big reason why they’ve fallen behind in the NL Wild Card race. Luckily, this matchup against Quintana has gone well in the past, and that should give them some level of optimism.

Betting Tip: Over 9.5

As we mentioned, both of these teams have some level of familiarity against each starting pitcher and that should get us off to a good start tonight. These teams have too much talent in their rosters to not be held down for long.

Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox (-145)

Time: 7:10 p.m. EST

Starting Pitchers

MIN: Martin Perez – L (9-6, 4.89 ERA/1.50 WHIP)

BOS: Nathan Eovaldi – R (1-0, 6.23 ERA/1.57 WHIP)

Odds Analysis: Boston Red Sox (-145)

The only change in odds from the open is on the total, which went from 12.0 to 11.5. Considering the current form of the two starting pitchers, bettors might get a nice discount on the over in this one.

Twins Betting Form

Martin Perez got absolutely shellacked by a bad Tigers team in his last start for nine hits and eight runs (seven earned) over 2 2/3 innings. Tonight’s matchup against the Red Sox shouldn’t give him a ton of optimism, considering they are one of the best offensive teams against left-handed pitching.

Needless to say, the Twins’ offense is one of the best in baseball. There are not many games where they get shut down, but last night was one of them and we don’t expect that to continue for the second night in a row.

Red Sox Betting Form

Nathan Eovaldi has done most of his work out of the bullpen this season, so we shouldn’t expect him to go too deep into this game. While there have been some trouble spots in these recent outings, Eovaldi did strike out eight Angels in his last start – and that’s no easy task against one of the best contact-hitting teams in baseball.

As we mentioned, the Red Sox absolutely crush left-handed pitching. There’s no doubt that this is a glorious spot against an older pitcher whose craftiness might not fool them one bit.

Betting Tip: Over 11.5

The matchup of the Red Sox against Perez is the key to this total landing over 11.5 runs. Not to mention, we’ve got one of the best offenses in baseball in the other dugout. Four of the five Red Sox-Twins’ games this season have landed under the total – we’re due for a slugfest!

Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves

Time: 7:20 p.m. EST

Starting Pitchers

WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (16-5, 3.47 ERA/1.04 WHIP)

ATL: Max Fried – L (15-4, 4.05 ERA/1.38 WHIP)

Nationals Betting Form

Stephen Strasburg hasn’t necessarily been rocked by the Braves this season, but it’s not like he’s completely shut them down either. Tonight’s matchup against Atlanta is definitely going to come a bit tougher, considering the recent form it’s in. While Strasburg does have 24 strikeouts over his last two starts – a span of 14 innings – those did come against teams that aren’t at their best currently.

The Nationals’ offense is one of the best teams against left-handed pitching. Not only that, but they’ve handled tonight’s opposing pitcher well a few times already this season.

Braves Betting Form

Max Fried has been tripped up a few times in recent outings but he did strike out 11 White Sox in his last start. The lefty has only faced the Nationals once this season, allowing nine hits and four runs. However, we like the way this Braves team plays when Fried is on the mound, and that should ultimately lead them to victory.

The Braves’ offense has averaged 8.0 runs per game over the last six games, so they’re certainly coming into tonight’s matchup against Strasburg in peak form. It’s likely one of the reasons we have seen the implied run totals increase, and it could offer some value on their moneyline odds as well.

Betting Tip: Braves (+105)

The Braves are 20-6 in Fried’s starts this season, including wins in each of the last eight. Sure, there’s value on the total going over in this matchup, but it does make sense to take the plus-money and go with the Braves.

Al Walsh
Al Walsh Chief Sports Writer