In this article, we’ll provide you our betting picks for Wednesday’s doubleheader of Game 5 matchups in the National League Division Series – St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves & Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers. We study the odds, betting lines teams and players to give you our recommended baseball betting picks to beat the New Jersey sportsbooks.
NLDS Game 5: St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves (ML: -116) – O/U: 8
Game 5 Betting Pick: Cardinals (-116)
Wednesday, October 9th, 2019 – 5:02 p.m. EST
STL: Jack Flaherty – R (0-1, 3.86 ERA/1.29 WHIP)
ATL: Mike Foltynewicz – R (1-0, 0.00 ERA/0.43 WHIP)
The NLDS between the St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves has had plenty of dramatic moments, so it makes perfect sense that Game 5 would follow suit. Our top betting pick is for the Cardinals to pull out this game on the road and advance to the next round. Let’s take a look at the numbers and see we’re rolling with St. Louis in this one.
Game 5 Betting Lines Analysis: Cardinals at Braves
Early on, 57 percent of public bets/71 percent of all money wagered is on the Braves to win outright. In addition, 63 percent of public bets/94 percent of all money wagered is coming in on the total going under.
Cardinals Betting Form
Jack Flaherty gets his second crack at the Braves on the road in this series. The first go-round wasn’t necessarily too bad, even though he took the loss, as he allowed three runs over seven innings – the last two of which came on an Adam Duvall two-run home run in the seventh. Flaherty has been one of (if not) the most dominant pitchers in baseball since the All-Star break. Getting to Flaherty once might have been due to desperation after Game 1, but it’ll incredibly tough to do this twice in one series.
Just as the case is with its opponents, the St. Louis bullpen has both strong and shaky pieces. For the Cards’ sake, you have to hope that guys Andrew Miller, Jonathan Brebbia, Giovanny Gallegos, Ryan Helsley, and Tyler Webb find themselves in the game – not Carlos Martinez. You’d think Cardinals manager Mike Shildt has seen enough C-Mart already, considering he’s allowed six runs in 3 1/3 innings so far in this series. Also, we might see guys like Adam Wainwright and possibly even Dakota Hudson available to use in relief if things go sideways.
The Cardinals’ offense struggled mightily in Game 2 against the same starter they’ll see tonight, and that’s after they annihilated him during the regular season. Paul Goldschmidt and Marcell Ozuna have been outstanding at the plate in this series, so if St. Louis wants to take this winner-take-all game on the road, they’ll need to come up big once again.
Braves Betting Form
As we just mentioned, Mike Foltynewicz dominated the Cardinals in Game 2, allowing three hits, no walks, and no runs while striking out seven over seven innings. It was the biggest start of Folty’s career, and it came at a time when his team needed him most, trying to avoid the 0-2 hole going back to St. Louis. The biggest question is whether or not he can be that effective again; all signs point to yes, as Foltynewicz had a 6-1 record and 2.65 ERA in 10 regular-season starts after being recalled to the Majors in early August. September was particularly great, as he went 4-1 with a 1.50 ERA in five starts.
When comparing the two bullpens, Atlanta is definitely at a disadvantage here. Both of the St. Louis wins came while trailing in the eighth inning, so getting these outs have been even more important than we anticipated. If Foltynewicz struggles early, we’ll probably see a long line of relievers enter the game. Since this is a winner-take-all game, you have to wonder if Mike Soroka would be a legit option out of the bullpen. There’s no tomorrow!
The Braves’ offense will have their hands full in this matchup against Flaherty, but they certainly have enough talent to make it work. While one player hasn’t necessarily raked it throughout the entire series, Ronald Acuna Jr. has been the best bat and Dansby Swanson has been a pleasant surprise. In order to beat a guy like Flaherty, we’ve seen teams do well by getting runners on base. Flaherty has been prone to give up walks every now and again, so staying patient at the plate is probably the best approach.
Game 5 Betting Pick: Cardinals (-116)
With the better starting pitcher and bullpen, we’ll take our chances on the Cardinals to win this game on the road. It’s crazy to think, but Foltynewicz was just pitching in the minor leagues a few months ago. We’ll place our faith in Flaherty to get this game off to a good start for the Cardinals and take this one at the end with solid bullpen pitching.
Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers (ML: -160) – O/U
Betting Pick: Dodgers (-160)
Wednesday, October 9th, 2019 – 8:37 p.m. EST
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (1-0, 1.50 ERA/0.50 WHIP)
LAD: Walker Buehler – R (1-0, 0.00 ERA/0.67 WHIP)
It all comes down to Game 5 in the NLDS as the Washington Nationals take on the Los Angeles Dodgers. Most of the games in this series haven’t necessarily been competitive but we should see a much different type of contest tonight with each team’s season on the line. Let’s dive into the facts and figures to see why we’re going with the Dodgers in Game 5.
Game 5 Betting Lines Analysis: Nationals at Dodgers
Early on, the Dodgers have received 57 percent of public bets/87 percent of all money wagered. In addition, 55 percent of public bets are on the total going under while 73 percent of all money wagered is on the total going under.
Nationals Betting Form
Stephen Strasburg has looked great in the postseason, allowing five hits, no walks and one run while striking out 14 over nine innings. This is a combination of time, tossing three innings against the Brewers in the NL Wild Card Game and then six innings against the Dodgers in Game 2 of the NLDS. At this time of the season, you have to believe he won’t be limited in any fashion. The Nationals would love to have Strasburg have a repeat performance of Game 2 when he pitched six innings of one-run ball with 10 strikeouts.
A big performance from Strasburg is even more important, considering the state of the Nationals’ bullpen this season. It’s very telling that all but two pitchers from Washington’s bullpen have allowed a run in this series. The element of shutdown pitching just isn’t there, so they’ll probably have to milk everything they can out of Strasburg.
The Nationals’ offense is in a very tough spot against a pitcher who completely shut them down in Game 1. If all of that wasn’t enough, the Dodgers’ bullpen is one of the best in the business. Aside from a slip-up in Game 4, this is typically a shutdown-unit and they did have some of the best numbers during the regular season. Don’t expect the Nationals to have too many runs cross the plate in this one.
Dodgers Betting Form
Walker Buehler looked fantastic in Game 1, allowing one hit, three walks, and no runs while striking out eight in six innings. Dodger Stadium has been safe-haven for the right-hander this season, posting a 6-1 record to go along with a 2.86 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and two complete games in 14 starts. While the complete game probably won’t come into play this evening, those other numbers are certainly while certainly come into play against a Nationals’ lineup that hasn’t been able to figure him out.
As mentioned earlier, the Dodgers’ bullpen is one of the best in baseball. Without diving too deep into the numbers, this is a unit that always comes up big in the clutch. They have the ability to match up positively against most of these Nationals’ hitters and that’ll likely be a huge factor in them getting the win.
The Dodgers’ offense will likely have to get the bats working later in this game, as Strasburg has been electric here early on in the postseason. Dating back to mid-August, Strasburg has allowed two runs or fewer in eight of his last starts. Justin Turner has been the big bopper with six hits (two doubles, two homers) and Max Muncy has added two homers as well. The Dodgers have had plenty of miraculous moments during the regular season, so it wouldn’t surprise us for one of their many rookies on the roster to have a big hit late in this one.
Game 5 Betting Pick: Dodgers (ML: -160)
In a game that’ll likely come down to the wire, we’ll take the home team with the better bullpen. If the Dodgers go to the plate with a disciplined approach and have the ability to get deep into counts against Strasburg, that’ll greatly increase their chances to win this game.