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MLB Betting Preview: BAL Orioles at PHI Phillies (8/11/20)

The Philadelphia Phillies will look to keep it rolling offensively when the upstart Baltimore Orioles come to town for the first of a three-game series. Yesterday, the Phils hung 13 runs (10 in the first two innings) on the Atlanta Braves en route to a 13-8 win. The Orioles have been playing great ball, sitting at a very surprising 7-7 record.

Tonight’s pitching matchup includes two guys off to a hot start – Alex Cobb for Baltimore and Zack Wheeler for Philly. Cobb, who has been terrible over the last two seasons, looks to be healthy now and has allowed only four runs over 14 1/3 innings.

Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies

Citizens Bank Park – Philadelphia, PA
7:05 p.m. EST (Watch: MLB Extra Innings)

Starting Pitchers

BAL: Alex Cobb – R (1-1, 2.51 ERA/1.12 WHIP this season)
PHI: Zack Wheeler – R (2-0, 2.08 ERA/1.15 WHIP this season)

Odds & Betting lines (bet365)

Total: 8.5 runs | Over: -115 | Under: -105
BAL | Moneyline: +165 | Run Line (+1.5): -130
PHI | Moneyline: -185 | Run Line (-1.5): +110

Injury List

BAL: Pedro Severino -C (BER), Hunter Harvey -RP (IL), Jorge Lopez -RP (IL)
PHI: Mickey Moniak -OF (DTD)

Game Notes

Where’s the Money Going?

As of 12:45 p.m. EST today, here are the betting percentages:

Moneyline: PHI, 65% of bets made | PHI, 67% of all money wagered
Run Line: PHI, 74% of bets made | BAL, 62% of all money wagered
Total: Under, 51% of bets made | Under, 82% of all money wagered

New York Must Be Missing Wheeler

Wheeler’s old team, the New York Mets, are now down two starters in the rotation (Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman) while Steven Matz is tripping all over himself; and we’re all unsure of Rick Porcello. Of course, Jacob deGrom is the best pitcher on the planet. Meanwhile, Wheeler has looked outstanding with fantastic outings against the Yankees and Marlins to start the season.

Betting Picks

Phillies Run Line -1.5 (+110)

I had this same exact bet last night, and I’m going back to the well again. The team totals have decreased for both teams (BAL: -0.3, PHI: -0.2), and that leads to me to believe that Wheeler is going to have a flawless outing tonight. I’m not completely sold on the fact that Cobb has “figured it out” just yet; after all, this is one of the worst pitchers in baseball since 2018.

Philly was a big favorite of mine to make the postseason, and the early returns haven’t look great yet at a game below .500. However, the season is…. er, early, and the NL East is certainly up for grabs.