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MLB Betting Preview: TEX Rangers @ SF Giants (8/1/20)

On Saturday night, the Rangers and Giants square off for the second time in San Francisco. The visiting Rangers will trot out righty Jordan Lyles in search of their third win. Meanwhile, the Giants will counter with the southpaw Drew Smyly. 

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Texas Rangers at San Francisco Giants

Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA – 9:10 PM EST

Game Info/Starting Pitchers:

TEX: Jordan Lyles – R (Last Season: 4.15 ERA, 4.64 FIP, 1.6 WAR, 141 IP)

SF: Drew Symly – L (Last Season: 6.24 ERA, 6.26 FIP, -0.3 WAR, 114 IP)

Odds & Betting lines (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Total: 8.5| Over: –109 | Under: -110
TEX | Moneyline: -136 | Run Line (-1.5): +125
SFG | Moneyline: +110 | Run Line (+1.5): -148

Injury List

TEX: SP Brock Burke, SP Corey Kluber, RP Jose Leclerc, RP Rafael Montero, RP Joely Rodriguez

SF: IF Aramis Garcia, SP Tyler Beede, RP Jarlin Garcia, RP Reyes Moronta

Interesting Stats

Bridge to the Bullpen

Although Jordan Lyles has had a solid career, don’t expect the Rangers to rely on him much. Across his years in the NL, Lyles has pitched to the tune of a 5.09 ERA and 4.51 FIP–stats which scream ‘fill-in starter.’ In the era of launch angles, exit velocity, and going-for-broke power, a guy with a career 17% strikeout rate won’t do the trick. 

Similarly for the Giants, Drew Smyly also profiles as a 5-and-fly arm. While he does have a slightly better strikeout rate, his walk and home run problems nullify his production. Look for both squads to call in their relievers at early signs of trouble.

Offensive Offenses?

Normally, a matchup between fill-in starters bodes well for the chances of a high-scoring game. In this contest, however, neither offense may have enough to take advantage. In 2019, these two teams tied for 26th in non-pitcher wRC+ (12% below average), a dreadful mark indeed. And while the Rangers do have the formidable Joey Gallo, the rest of the lineup has failed to keep pace. 

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Betting Picks

San Francisco ML (+110) and/or SF +1.5 (-148)

Based on similar situations on the mound and at the plate, these two teams are very close to even. When you throw in home field advantage, San Francisco may even edge out as a slight favorite. In this case, getting +110 (47.5% implied odds) is great value. As a result, SF +1.5 (-148) also makes sense here. Either bet is a good play at their respective odds; whether you take the higher-upside bet or sure thing (or both) is up to personal preference.