NCAAF Computer Pick | Playoff National Championship

College Football’s version of Monday Night Football is for all the marbles, as the Clemson Tigers face the LSU Tigers in the College Football Playoff National Championship.  In this article, we’ll provide you our College Football Playoff National Championship preview. We study the odds, players, and teams to give you our recommended College Football Playoff picks to beat the online sports betting sites.

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College Football Playoff National Championship

Clemson Tigers vs. LSU Tigers (-6) – Total: 69.5

Monday, Jan. 13, 2019 – 8:00 p.m. EST
Mercedes-Benz Superdome – New Orleans, LA

College Football Playoff National Championship | Computer Pick
LSU Tigers quarterback Joe Burrow (9) rushes the ball for a touchdown during a game between the LSU Tigers and the Auburn Tigers in Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana on October 26, 2019.

CFP National Championship Computer Pick: LSU to cover the spread

This matchup between the Clemson Tigers and LSU Tigers is likely to be one of the more entertaining National Championship games in recent memory. One thing we can guarantee is that the Tigers will win the last of these bowl games this college football season. However, it’s LSU’s breed of Tiger that we like to win this game and cover the six-point spread. Let’s dive into some numbers to see why we’re going with the favorite.

CFP National Championship Betting Line: Clemson vs. LSU

The spread initially opened around LSU -3 or -4 at some books. After LSU’s major beatdown of Oklahoma in the CFP Semifinal, the public hammered the Tigers and that number currently sits at 74 percent – the same number of all money wagered. According to most sportsbook managers in Las Vegas, they are basically trying to give away Clemson tickets. If this number gets up to a key number of +7 for Clemson, then we might finally see some of these bets start to swing the other way.

Clemson Betting Form

QB Trevor Lawrence has never lost a game at Clemson, making the team’s 29-game winning streak one of the best of all-time. His 25-0 record as a starter could be in jeopardy against the mammoth roster of LSU. While Clemson had another great season, they didn’t play many quality opponents before seeing Ohio State in the CFP Semifinal. We’re not doubting that Lawrence will have a good game, but he’ll need to be perfect in order to top Burrow.

RB Travis Etienne was incredible this season with 1,536 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns. It would certainly behoove Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney to get him involved early and often in this game.

If Clemson has a chance in this game, it’ll have to be on defense. No other team in the nation allowed fewer points per game than at 11.5. Of course, the biggest matchup will be against the Heisman-winning QB on the other side of the field. Clemson did have the best pass defense in the nation (151.5 yards per game) in the nation this season.

However, this is a matchup that is obviously going to be the most difficult one they have ever faced. Clemson’s defense did not allow more than 25 points all season. However, some trends were made to be broken.

LSU Betting Form

LSU will certainly have a big advantage playing this game in its home state of Louisiana. You can assure plenty of fans will make their way to New Orleans from Baton Rouge.

QB Joe Burrow, the 2019 Heisman Trophy winner, has been on point in leading the nation’s best scoring offense at 48.9 points per game. As we mentioned in the Clemson blurb, that defense is the best in the nation against the pass.

However, Burrow has thrown for a whopping 5,208 yards and 55 touchdown passes (both SEC single-season records) this season up against only six interceptions. His performance against Oklahoma in the CFP Semifinal was nothing short of amazing, as he threw seven touchdowns before the second half started. Burrow was only held under 300 passing yards twice this season but LSU won each game by at least two touchdowns.

As Burrow said earlier this week, “We have five NFL guys in routes every single snap, and it’s tough to cover. We’re a tough matchup for a lot of people, and then I just try to get the ball in (the receivers’) hands on-time and then let them do the rest.”

Burrow is not kidding. Those five players he spoke of all have at least 40 catches and 399 receiving yards this season; c’mon Clyde Edwards-Helaire, one more yard and we could have five guys with 40 and 400! Nonetheless, WRs Ja’Marr Chase (75 rec, 1,559 yards, 18 TDs) and Justin Jefferson (102 rec, 1,434 yards, 18 TDs) are the ones that can really make the impact needed in this game.

CFP National Championship Computer Pick: LSU to cover the spread

Both teams come in at a perfect 14-0, but LSU is just on another level at this point. We have seen LSU kick it into gear plenty of times against teams like Alabama and Georgia. Look for LSU to get the win convincingly in front of the home-state Louisiana fans.

Al Walsh
Al Walsh Chief Sports Writer