NCAAF Saturday Betting Tips (9/14/19)

Pittsburgh Panthers at Penn State Nittany Lions

Arizona State Sun Devils at Michigan State Spartans

Florida Gators at Kentucky Wildcat

Pittsburgh Panthers at Penn State Nittany Lions

Betting Pick: Redskins +5.5

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Time: Saturday 14th September 12:00 p.m. EST

Sadly, this will be the last time these Pennsylvania schools meet for a while. But it should be a good one nonetheless, considering the hatred is strong on both sidelines. What a scene it’ll be for the 100th installment of this rivalry!

There’s no love lost between the two head coaches, James Franklin and Pat Narduzzi, especially after Penn State’s 51-6 blowout win last season. Penn State’s backup quarterback threw a late touchdown pass, leading by 38 points with four minutes to go, and that upset Narduzzi. With that show of disrespect, and this being the last meeting scheduled for a while, expect to see plenty of emotion.

Odds Analysis: PITT at Penn State

The big move in this game came on the total, jumping from 47 to 53. As of Thursday afternoon, 60 percent of public bets/77 percent of money wagered is as well.

The spread opened at -16.5 in Penn State’s favor, moving slightly to -17 currently. 69 percent of bets/60 percent of money is on Penn State.

PITT Betting Form

As long as PITT doesn’t commit too many turnovers, they should be able to hang with Penn State. The Panthers have a new up-tempo offense, which actually had double the amount of total yards than their opponent last week. PITT’s balanced attack, of 37 rushing and passing plays each, should bode well for them in this matchup.

Penn State Betting Form

Penn State had an incredible margin of victory in each of their first two games. However, that last one against Buffalo should have bettors concerned about covering the spread in this game. Penn State trailed Buffalo at halftime 10-7 before having a third quarter that sent things into a frenzy. It’s worth noting, though, that Buffalo had eight more first downs, more total yards and had 42 minutes of possession in the game. Penn State did benefit from eight Buffalo penalties (for 78 yards) and favorable field position.

Nonetheless, the Nittany Lions have plenty of talent, led by quarterback Sean Clifford and a plethora of talented playmakers.

Betting Pick: PITT +17

Both defenses have a lot of talent and that could be the key to keeping this game close. However, these college kids are highly emotional and bound to be motivated. We listed plenty of reasons why each team will be fired up in this one, and that’ll make too close of a game for Penn State to cover this huge spread.

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Arizona State Sun Devils at Michigan State Spartans

Betting Pick: Steelers -4.5

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Time: Saturday 14th September 4:00 p.m. EST

Arizona State pulled the upset at home over Michigan State last season, but things could be different this time around. Sparty’s defense is one of the best in college football, and that’ll ultimately be the difference in this one. Not to mention, the home-field advantage should prove to be a major boost in this one.

Odds Analysis: Arizona State at Michigan State

The line has increased from -10.5 or -11.5 and has now gone to -14.5. A lot of that has to do with 79 percent of public bets/84 percent of money wagered came in on Sparty to cover the spread.

Additionally, 47 percent of public bets/92 percent of the money has come in on the under. This is why we’ve seen the total come down a field goal from 45 to 42.

Arizona Betting Form

Freshman QB Jayden Daniels has tons of potential, but we probably won’t see it on Saturday. This will be his third career start, and first on the road. That doesn’t bode well against a Michigan State defense that is one of, if not, the best in the country. In particular, Sparty’s run defense is allowing -3.0 yards per carry – we repeat NEGATIVE THREE YARDS PER CARRY! That’ll make the Sun Devils a one-dimensional offense, and that’s the last thing they need with a freshman quarterback at the helm.

Michigan State Betting Form

As we mentioned, that Sparty defense will be the catalyst for victory more weeks than not. But it’s worth noting that their offense got it going with a 51-point performance last week. Michigan State’s offensive woes have been well documented, but this is certainly the form bettors want to see heading into this matchup.

Betting Pick: Michigan State -14.5

It’d be more beneficial for bettors to buy this line down to -13.5 or -14. The low total on this game speaks to the level of confidence that Vegas has in the Sun Devils’ offense. Look for Sparty to make Daniels’ life a living hell early and often, while giving their bettors ear-to-ear smiles in the process.

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Florida Gators at Kentucky Wildcats

Betting Pick: Rams -2

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Time: Saturday 14th September 7:00 p.m. EST

Last year, Kentucky got its first win against Florida in over three decades. Let’s not get too excited about a repeat, though, as a certain factor of personnel will likely decide this one. It’ll be a nasty SEC game, but the Gators should be just fine in Lexington.

Odds Analysis: Florida at Kentucky

The Gators opened as 8.5-point favorites but slid down slightly to 8.0. 63 percent of public bets/70 percent of money wagered is with Florida. However, the huge difference is on the total, as 87 percent of public bets/90 percent of money wagered is on the under. In that instance, the total went from 51 to 48.5.

Florida Betting Form

Felipe Franks had a solid game last week, going 25-for-27 with two touchdowns en route to a 45-0 win. Granted, this week’s opponent will be much tougher, but there is plenty of motivation for Franks to do well. After all, Franks was the QB last year when Florida’s huge win streak against Kentucky ended. There’s no doubt at all that he wants to right those wrongs.

The Gators’ defense will be instrumental in this game as well. They’ve got tons of playmakers in their back seven and some nasty grinders up front. When Kentucky’s run game gets shut down early, look for the pass rush to start creating some havoc; that’ll give Florida some favorable field-position opportunities to cover the eight-point spread.

Kentucky Betting Form

QB Terry Wilson was injured in Kentucky’s last game and he’ll miss the rest of the season. Now, they’ll turn to Troy transfer Sawyer Smith, and you have to wonder how he’ll do with a new set of personnel in a marquee game. Florida will bring a lot of pressure his way, and that could be problematic for the new signal-caller.

Kentucky’s defense is pretty solid, and it’ll be able to keep this one close for stretches of this game. However, there’s just too much talent on the other side of the field, and that’ll ultimately be the difference.

Betting Pick: Kentucky -8

As we just mentioned, there’s too much motivation and talent on the Gators’ roster for them not to win this game. Look for this one to be a tough game for most of the night, but we have enough faith in Florida to cover the spread.

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