NCAAF Saturday’s Top Betting Picks (9/21/19)

Read our top football betting picks for Saturday’s games. We study the odds, the teams, and the players to give you our recommended betting picks to beat the bookie!

11 Michigan Wolverines at #13 Wisconsin Badgers

Pick: Wisconsin -3.5

8 Auburn Tigers at #17 Texas A&M Aggies

Texas A&M -3.5

7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #3 Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia -14.5

#11 Michigan Wolverines at #13 Wisconsin Badgers – O/U: 44.5

Betting Pick: Wisconsin -3.5

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Time: Sunday 15th September 1:00 p.m. EST

Each team gets conference-play kicked off with a bang, and we’re all chomping at the bit to see it. Michigan throttled Wisconsin by the score of 38-13 in last season’s meeting at Ann Arbor. That makes two of the last three meetings going in favor of the Wolverines.

The game in Madison should be quite windy, limiting what the offenses are able to do. Look to see a good old fashioned grind-it-out Big Ten matchup with two imposing defenses.

Odds Analysis: Michigan at Wisconsin

After watching Michigan stumble in its last game, the majority of folks have turned on this team. 65 percent of public bets/58 percent of money wagered. Darren Rovell of The Action Network reported that a $5,000 bet at Westgate SuperBook came in on Wisconsin at -3. Another $25,000 wager was placed a few hours later for Wisconsin at -3.5.

Because of the aforementioned wind, we have seen the total change quite a bit. After it opened 47, the total went was low as 42.5 before finally settling on 44.5. Currently, 65 percent of public bets/49 percent of money wagered is on the under.

Michigan Betting Form

Michigan barely survived a double-overtime thriller against Army two weeks ago. Perhaps, that extra week off could let that embarrassment simmer a bit. The Wolverines need to be more effective on offense, but the question still remains – will they?

Wisconsin’s defense hasn’t allowed a single point this season. We could easily crack the joke about who they played, but zero is still the same value in every country’s numerical system. When we look at this aspect of the matchup, and how Michigan performed two weeks ago against Army, it’s too hard to overlook.

To cap it off, Michigan has lost in its last four trips to Camp Randall Stadium and holds a 1-5 record against ranked teams on the road under head coach Jim Harbaugh.

Wisconsin Betting Form

Wisconsin has won its first two games by a combined score of a 110-0, albeit against lowly competition. There is a reason the Badgers are favored, and that’s because of their home-field advantage at Camp Randall Stadium. In their last 43 games there in the month of September, Wisconsin holds at 42-1 record. Not to mention, they’ve also won eight straight games at Camp Randall against teams with a winning record.

Badgers’ running back Jonathan Taylor is the real deal. After setting the NCAA record for most rushing yards as a freshman, and then again as a sophomore, he’s been limited in the first two games. Limited has a different meaning here, as Taylor has rushed for 100+ yards in each of those first two contests.

Because Wisconsin has been steamrolling its competition, he hasn’t been needed as much. Look for that to change today, and you know Taylor has a sense of cabin fever brewing. After all, Taylor already has a total of 233 rushing yards on 36 carries in two career games against Michigan.

Betting Pick: Wisconsin -3.5

It’d be great for bettors to possibly wait it out and to get this number at -3 for Wisconsin. Sure, Michigan had a week off, but you can make the case that Wisconsin hasn’t been challenged at all this season. In any event, we like the Badgers to roll comfortably in this one. Dating back to last season, the Wolverines have failed to cover six straight games.

#8 Auburn Tigers at #17 Texas A&M Aggies (-3.5) – O/U: 48

Betting Pick: Texas A&M -3.5

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Time: Saturday 22nd September 3:30 p.m. EST

SEC Saturdays are officially back with a solid Top-25 matchup to appease the viewing audience. Last season, Auburn got the close 28-24 win at home. Now that both teams are more familiar with one another in the SEC West, Auburn has also taken three of the last four meetings.

Odds Analysis: Auburn at Texas A&M

The spread for Texas A&M dipped slightly, going from -4 at the open to -3.5 currently. 62 percent of public bets/57 percent of money wagered are on the Aggies, giving a reason for the slight drop.

We’ve seen the total dip from 51 to 48, with 58 percent of public bets/69 percent of money wagered coming in on the under.

Auburn Betting Form

Auburn is only of two ranked teams that have covered the spread in every game this season. A lot of that success has come from its rushing attack, with 281.7 yards per game, which is the 10th-best in the nation. This should be a fantastic matchup against a Texas A&M defense that is only allowing 83.7 yards per game on the ground, ranking them just outside the Top-10.

True-freshman QB Bo Nix hasn’t had much of a need to throw the ball since the season-opening win against Oregon. However, Saturday’s matchup should be a great chance for him to get reacquainted with his receivers. Nix has a disappointing 52.4 completion percentage this season, while only one receiver (Eli Stove) has a double-digit number of receptions.

Texas A&M Betting Form

It’s fascinating, but the two teams have an eerily similar number of total yards per game – Auburn: 465, Texas A&M: 466.7. While the Tigers’ offense is getting it done on the ground, Texas A&M is moving the ball through the air, with 292.7 yards per game.

QB Kellen Mond had a rough game in Death Valley two weeks ago, but the friendly confines of Kyle Field are sure to treat him better. Auburn hasn’t seen an offense like Texas A&M yet this season, so this could certainly be one of those shell-shock moments we point back to after the game.

Betting Pick: Texas A&M -3.5

With the Aggies already having a mark in the loss column, this home game is crucial moving forward. If they can get out to an early lead, that’ll put the Tigers’ offense in a bind as they try to move the ball through the air with the freshman under center. Look for Mond & Co. to have no trouble doing so, and ultimately get the win.

#7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #3 Georgia Bulldogs (-14.5) – O/U: 58

Betting Pick: Georgia -14.5

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Time: Sunday 15th September 8:00 p.m. EST

Here we are again – Notre Dame facing a seemingly-overmatched opponent. It feels like we’ve been here on an annual basis since the advent of the College Football Playoff, with no changes at all. Facing a Power-5 school, as a true road team this time, can the Fighting Irish change their stigma? Georgia did win the last meeting between these teams back in 2017 by a narrow margin of 20-19.

Odds Analysis: Notre Dame at Georgia

Georgia’s opening line of -11.5 has since moved three points to -14.5 currently. Because of Notre Dame’s early struggles in the opener, 63 percent of public bets/69 percent of money wagered is in favor of UGA.

There hasn’t been any movement on the total, sitting still at 58, but 57 percent of public bets/61 percent of money wagered is on the over.

Notre Dame Betting Form

QB Ian Book has a monumental task in front of him, facing a Georgia defense that always churns out NFL talent. Notre Dame does have six different wideouts with touchdowns this season, so spreading the ball out will certainly be crucial.

As you’ll see below, the Irish run defense will have its hands full. If they want any chance of keeping this game close, that unit will have to at least minimize the damage. That, however, will be a lot easier said than done.

Rams Betting Form

Georgia has won 15 straight contests at Sanford Stadium by an average of 29.3 points at home under head coach Kirby Smart. This is one of, if not, the toughest places to play in all of college football. For a Notre Dame team that already doesn’t play well against these powerhouse schools, this should be a convincing win for Georgia.

The Bulldogs’ 296.5 rushing yards per game ranks sixth-best in the nation. We already saw the Irish get destroyed on the ground by Louisville – imagine what Georgia can do in this spot. After all, the Bulldogs already have five running backs that have already totaled 100 rushing yards on the season, with a total of 10 touchdowns between them.

Betting Pick: Georgia -14.5

Until Notre Dame proves otherwise, they really can’t hang with the elite programs in college football. Look for Georgia to take it to their opponents early and often on the ground, setting the tempo for this game.