In this article, we’ll provide you with our top NCAAF Week 6 betting picks. There are three great matchups between the #14 Iowa Hawkeyes at #19 Michigan Wolverines, #7 Auburn Tigers at #10 Florida Gators and #25 Michigan State Spartans at #4 Ohio State Buckeyes. We study the odds, betting lines, teams, and players to give you our recommended college football betting picks to beat the New Jersey sportsbooks!
#14 Iowa Hawkeyes at #19 Michigan Wolverines (-3.5) – O/U: 48
Saturday, October 5th, 2019 – 12:00 p.m. EST
Betting Pick: Michigan -3.5
The Iowa Hawkeyes hit the road to face the Michigan Wolverines in a Big-Ten clash between two ranked teams. The home team has won eight of the last 10 meetings, with Michigan winning three of the last four against Iowa in Ann Arbor. Our top pick for Saturday’s game is for Michigan to cover the 3.5-point spread against Iowa. Let’s dive into the facts and figures below to learn why this is our top betting pick.
Week 6 Betting Lines Analysis: Iowa at Michigan
After opening as -5 favorites Michigan is now at -3.5, as 63 percent of public bets/72 percent of money wagered is coming in on Iowa. In addition, we’ve seen 59 percent of public bets/57 percent of money wagered on the total going under.
Iowa Betting Form
Iowa took the last meeting between the schools in 2016 at home. They also own four of the last five head-to-head matchups. However, this season Iowa is 2-2 ATS and their only game on the road was a one-point win at Iowa State, which they did not cover.
Both sides of the ball have been playing incredibly well for the Hawkeyes. Offensively, they rank 29th in both total yards per game (465) and rushing yards per game (217.5). On defense, they rank third in points allowed per game (8.5) and fifth in total yards allowed per game (251). QB Nate Stanley has looked solid this season with eight touchdowns, no interceptions 241.3 passing yards per game.
The problem is that Iowa has faced subpar competition, at best, in its first four games. This team has always beaten the teams they were supposed to, and then falling flat against traditional powers. On Saturday, Michigan will be its most fierce competitor this season, by far, and you have to wonder how they’ll fare on the road.
Michigan Betting Form
Michigan finally covered the spread for once this season, routing Rutgers last week by the score of 52-0. The key to winning this game will be the Wolverines’ pass defense, which ranks third in passing yards against per game (127.8). Previous matchups against Army and Wisconsin, mean Michigan’s run defense rank of 89th looks a lot worse than it actually is – they’ve allowed 168.5 rushing yards per game.
The Wolverines’ schedule has been a lot more competitive which could well be a huge factor in this game. Sure, the Hawkeyes played their rivals in the second game of the season, but going to The Big House is a much different story.
Betting Pick: Michigan -3.5
Michigan has not looked good at all this season, but perhaps last week’s win against lowly Rutgers will finally get this team focused. In reality, this is more about going more against Iowa than it is siding with Michigan. We’re not impressed at all with the Hawkeyes, and the rest of the nation will soon feel the same way once this game is over.
#7 Auburn Tigers (-3) at #10 Florida Gators
Saturday, October 5th, 2019 – 3:30 p.m. EST
Betting Pick: Auburn -3
The Auburn Tigers head on the road to face the Florida Gators in a battle of unbeaten SEC powerhouses. The home team has won seven of the last 10 matchups between the teams, with Florida winning four of the last five meetings at The Swamp. All in all, Auburn has won four of the last five head-to-head meetings between the teams. Our top pick for Saturday’s game is for Auburn to cover the three-point spread against Florida. Let’s dive into the facts and figures below to learn why this is our top betting pick.
Week 6 Betting Lines Analysis: Auburn at Florida
Bettors have not been lining up to wager on the home team. 78 percent of public bets/65 percent of money wagered on Auburn – in fact, the line even jumped in Auburn’s favor from -2.5 to -3. In addition, we’ve seen the total move from 46.5 to 48.5, with 68 percent of public bets on the under/66 percent of money wagered on the over.
Auburn Betting Form
Auburn comes into this showdown in peak form, covering all five of its games by an average of 9.1 points per game and winning outright by an average of 20.8 points. It’s very impressive, considering the Tigers have faced two ranked teams (Oregon, Texas A&M) and another decent team in Mississippi State.
The rushing attack has been outstanding for Auburn, ranking 12th-best with an average of 251 yards per game. Now that QB Bo Nix is starting to put together some nice performances, this gives the Tigers a formidable balanced attack.
On defense, Auburn is allowing only three yards per carry. Not one opponent has topped 120 rushing yards yet this season against them. If the Tigers turn their opponents into a one-dimensional offense. It could make things a bit more difficult for the Gators’ aerial attack, which will likely lead the way for them. It’s highly unlikely that Florida tries to get it done on the ground in this matchup.
Auburn is only of two ranked teams that have covered the spread in every game this season. A lot of that success has come from its rushing attack, with 281.7 yards per game, which is the 10th-best in the nation. This should be a fantastic matchup against a Texas A&M defense that is only allowing 83.7 yards per game on the ground, ranking them just outside the Top-10.
Florida Betting Form
Florida is only 2-3 ATS, only covering the spread by an average of 2.4 per game. In the Gators’ only two wins against quality opponents, they have only won by single digits.
If Florida is going to have a chance in this one, it’s going to come from its nasty defense. Florida has allowed a total of 44 points this season. Granted, there have been more than a few cupcake opponents on the schedule, but there is some talent on this unit that’ll be playing on Sundays in the future.
The Gators are down to second-string QB Kyle Trask after Feleipe Franks suffered a season-ending injury. Trask has been serviceable in a few wins this season but has yet to face a team of this caliber. All in all, we don’t think he has enough talent to keep pace with the high-flying Auburn offense, and that’ll ultimately be the difference.
Betting Pick: Auburn -3
With the Aggies already having a mark in the loss column, this home game is crucial moving forward. If they can get out to an early lead, that’ll put the Tigers’ offense in a bind as they try to move the ball through the air with the freshman under center. Look for Mond & Co. to have no trouble doing so, and ultimately get the win.
#25 Michigan State Spartans at #4 Ohio State Buckeyes (-20) – O/U: 49.5
Saturday, October 5th, 2019 – 7:30 p.m. EST
Betting Pick: Michigan State +20
The Ohio State Buckeyes host the Michigan State Spartans in the battle for Big Ten East supremacy. Ohio State is 4-1 in its last five meetings against Michigan State, including last year’s 26-6 victory in East Lansing. Our top pick for Saturday’s game is for Michigan State to cover the 20-point spread against Ohio State. Let’s dive into the facts and figures below to learn why this is our top betting pick.
Week 6 Betting Lines Analysis: Michigan State at Ohio State
The Buckeyes’ -20 line stayed strong throughout the week. 64 percent of public bets/59 percent of money wagered coming in on that side. In addition, we’ve seen 69 percent of public bets/74 percent of money wagered on the total going over.
Michigan State Betting Form
Michigan State has only lost six games by 20 points since 2018. However, two of those losses have come against Ohio State in each of the last two years. This is a great revenge spot for Sparty, considering they already lost a game at home earlier this season to Arizona State. While it’s a huge longshot for Sparty to reach the College Football Playoff. They could still make it to the Rose Bowl and make something of this season.
As for the matchup itself, it’s going to take a lot for Michigan State’s defense to keep this game close – but they are certainly talented enough to do it. This unit is well-coached and has very little flaws to speak of. It is somewhat concerning that they allowed Indiana to post 31 points against them, but perhaps Sparty was looking ahead to this week’s matchup. Prior to last week, Michigan State had only allowed a total of 41 points in four games.
Also, the offense is humming along at the right time, with a total of 71 points over the last two games. They’ll need to keep the ball away from Ohio State’s powerful offense for stretches of this contest, but it’s also good to know they can pop the long play if need be.
Ohio State Betting Form
Ohio State boasts one of the best teams in the nation year after year. However, it has also put a massive target on their backs. The bye week is coming up for the Buckeyes, which didn’t go well when this arose last season. Ohio State ended up losing by the score of 49-20 to Purdue.
While Ohio State beat Michigan State by 20 points last season. It was a 7-3 game at halftime and 9-6 at the end of the third. Expect this time around to be close as well.
We know everything there is to know about the Buckeyes on offense. They’re led by QB Justin Fields and have scored 262 points over the last five games, including at least 40 points in each game this season. We could certainly say Ohio State is due for regression in this matchup, but that sounds kind of ridiculous. It’s best to give Sparty some credit in this environment, though. After all, their two wins against Ohio State in recent memory have come at The Horseshoe.
Betting Pick: Michigan State +20 (buy to +21)
It’s not a sexy pick for week 6, but Michigan State does have the horses to hang with Ohio State in this game. Look for Sparty’s defense to be crucial in putting them in a position to strike near the end. Just to be safe, though, we’d prefer buying the spread up to 21 so we get an even number of three touchdowns (and three extra points) in our favor. You’d hate to lose this bet by one point.