The Week 16 Monday Night Football game features an interesting matchup between the Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings. Our MNF Week 16 Computer Pick has been chosen using an algorithm that analyzes historical sports data of the two teams to offer the best value bet to beat the New Jersey sportsbooks. In this article, we’ll take a look at the form of the teams and our top MNF prediction.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) – Total: 46.5
Monday, December 23, 2019 – 8:15 p.m. EST
MNF Week 16 Computer Pick: Vikings to cover the spread
The NFC North is up for grabs in Week 16 as the Green Bay Packers hit the road to face the Minnesota Vikings. It’s near 100-percent certain that each team will be making the NFL Playoffs. However, this matchup will be a good indicator of who gets home-field in at least one of those games.
Nonetheless, our NFL pick is for the Vikings to cover the 5.5-point spread. Let’s dive into the numbers to see why we’re going with the home favorite.
Monday Night Football Betting Line: Packers at Vikings
If you’re wondering why the spread is so high, you’re not alone. The Packers have one more win than the Vikings, yet remain 5.5-underdogs in this matchup. The spread does, however, make sense if you think Minnesota is a much more talented team than Green Bay. This is what the wiseguys think, going against the nearly two-thirds of public backing. In all actuality, the Vikings covering this spread isn’t as difficult as it sounds.
Packers Betting Form
The Packers have covered the spread in nine of their 11 wins this season. Unfortunately, that type of consistency hasn’t happened much of late, alternating covers and non-covers in each of the last six games. Wouldn’t you know? The Packers are due for a non-cover this week, just like when they got blasted in San Francisco a few weeks ago.
Only three QBs have ever thrown for 300+ yards at U.S. Bank Stadium since it opened, and Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been one of them. Nor, do we believe he will be this time around. Rodgers hasn’t done particularly well against the Vikings over his career, in either Green Bay or Minnesota. The best chance for the Packers to be successful in this game, though, is to get the ball to his outside receivers like Davante Adams. The problem there, however, will be giving Rodgers enough time to get it there. RB Aaron Jones might be the better weapon to use in this game, but it’ll be tough against the NFL’s eight-best rushing defense.
We’ve seen plenty of teams run the ball right at Green Bay this season with a good amount of success. While the Vikings won’t have their top two running backs, they’ve got enough depth at the position to make life difficult on the Packers. Once the Vikings get the running game going, that can open up play-action passes for Cousins to be successful.
Vikings Betting Form
The Vikings are 8-2 outright in their last 10 games, covering only six in that stretch. Minnesota did cover the spread against Green Bay back in Week 2, losing by only three points. But even better for us, the Vikings have won three of the last four meetings against the Packers. Playing indoors has always been a great setting for the Vikings, as they own an 18-8 ATS record there over the last three seasons.
Aside from the Week 2 matchup, QB Kirk Cousins has dominated the Packers throughout his career. He’s thrown for at least 340 yards in three of the four career meetings. Perhaps, the spread has a lot to do with these numbers. After all, Cousins and the Vikings will be without RBs Dalvin Cook, who will miss this game and the regular-season finale before the playoffs, and Alexander Mattison. Third-string RB Mike Boone will be thrust into a much bigger role, so all of you fantasy football guys in the championship need to pick him up. Also with those injuries, we should see WRs Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen have huge games.
The Vikings defense is pretty damn good as we saw last week, with seven turnovers against the Chargers. With the team at home in Week 16, look for that crowd noise to get pumping at maximum level and make things extra hard on Rodgers & Co.
MNF Week 16 Computer Pick: Vikings to cover the spread (-5.5)
While the 5.5-point spread looks massive, we have to remember just how good this Vikings team is. People think the spread might be even crazier with Cook out for Minnesota.
However, we believe the spread is right where it needs to be. The Vikings are a much better team at home with one of, if not, the loudest crowds in the NFL. With the NFC North title and home-field advantage at stake, it’ll be nearly impossible for Rodgers to hear anything at the line of scrimmage.