NFL Betting Pick: Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Gardner Minshew (15) runs the ball during a football game. Can he inspire the Jaguars to victory? Our betting pick says he will.
Gardner Minshew has had a tough start to the season. Can he get the Jaguars roaring on Thursday night?

Two AFC South rivals will do battle on Thursday night as The Tennessee Titans take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Our betting pick is the Jaguars to win on the spread. In this article we’ll study the odds, consider the Titans and the Jaguars betting form and why we’re betting on the Jaguars.

Tennessee Titans (-1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars – O/U: 39

Time: Thursday 19th September 8:20 p.m. EST

Betting Pick: Jaguars +1.5

William Hill Online Sortsbook Offer: Bet $50 Get $50

Tennessee sits at 1-1, after a dominant win in Cleveland and disappointing loss at home to Indianapolis. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is 0-2, after a home loss to Kansas City and a very close road loss to Houston last week. In Week 2, the Jaguars went for a risky two-point conversion at the end down by one, but did not capitalize on the situation.

Odds Analysis: Titans at Jaguars

The Titans’ line changed between -1.5 and -2.5 most of the week, getting 69 percent of public bets/68 percent of money wagered. Meanwhile, the total went from 41 to 39, with 67 percent of public bets/54 percent of money wagered is on the under.

Titans Betting Form

The Titans have beaten the Jaguars in four straight meetings, including six of the last seven. This all comes with QB Marcus Mariota throwing only three touchdown passes over the last five meetings, and only throwing for over 200 yards in one of those.

Nonetheless, Tennessee’s strength lies in running the ball and controlling the clock. RB Derrick Henry ran for 238 yards and four touchdowns in the last meeting (Dec. 6, 2018) between the teams, and we should expect to see plenty of the same tonight. The Jaguars have allowed over 100 rushing yards in each of their two games this season. Mariota simply won’t be able to move the ball through the air, limiting what the Titans can do on offense.

In each of the last three meetings, the Jaguars have scored totals of nine, six and 10 points against the Titans. This Titans’ defensive unit has looked great in its first two games of the season. So dealing with a young QB on a short week should allow them to have even more success.

Jaguars Betting Form

A loss for the Jaguars tonight will all but end their season. QB Gardner Minshew has shown to be somewhat limited after replacing Nick Foles in Week 1. In reality, no one (including Minshew) expected Foles to miss most of the season after signing that lucrative contract in the offseason. That change has certainly altered things, and we really don’t know the true identity of this offense just yet.

Look for Jacksonville to feature a heavy dose of RB Leonard Fournette this evening. Minshew has yet to get the ball to his playmakers on a consistent basis, and that probably won’t change on the short week.

If the Jaguars want to have a chance in this game, stopping the run is the key to doing so. Defenses want Mariota to throw against them. His only success has come from setting up play-action passes and plays involving motion and crossing-routes. With one of the most physical defenses in football, look for The Jaguars to knock the Titans back on their heels early.

Betting Pick: Jaguars +2

The Jaguars have hung with two of the best teams in football, so facing the Titans will be an easier task. There’s plenty of motivation on Jacksonville’s side to avoid the 0-3 start. Look for the defense to set the tone and get the win in front of its home crows.

Backing the Jaguars as well? Bet with PointsBet Now and get two Risk-Free Bets up to $1000

Read our review on PointsBet

Al Walsh
Al Walsh Chief Sports Writer