At the beginning of the week, I released my early NFL Week 4 picks against the spread article and mentioned some favorable lines to take advantage of. Of course, as we near kickoff on Sunday, some of these lines changed – and other spots became advantageous as well.
In this article, I’ll look at the meaningful movements since then to find the best NFL Week 4 picks for this weekend. Let’s see what has transpired throughout the week.
NFL Week 4 Picks
New York Giants (+7.5) at New Orleans Saints
Call me nuts, but I’m taking the points with the Giants this week. Early this week, we are seeing the bets right around 50/50 while 70% of the money is on Big Blue. And it’s certainly an interesting proposition, considering the Saints will be playing their first home game of the season… in New Orleans. The Saints have been traveling all over the East Coast early this year, so I would expect them to struggle quite a bit in these earlier games. Giants QB Daniel Jones has only turned the ball over once this season, and that could very well be the difference on Sunday.
Washington Football Team (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons
I completely missed this one earlier in the week, as Washington’s offense is poised for a breakout performance in Week 4. QB Taylor Heinicke, RB Antonio Gibson, WR Terry McLaurin and even TE Logan Thomas all have massive potential against a dreadful Falcons defense that ranks 24th DVOA in run defense and 26th DVOA in pass defense. The drastic difference in the spread comes into play here as well, with Washington going from +2.5 at the open to -1.5 as the largest swing of the week.
Seattle Seahawks ML (+140) at San Francisco 49ers
While both teams are coming off a loss, I’ll take my chances on Seahawks QB Russell Wilson. Coming into Sunday, he owns a and 26-14-4 ATS (65%) record coming off a loss and 20-11-2 ATS (65%) record as a road underdog. On the flip side, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is 8-19-1 ATS (30%) when coaching as a favorite. At the end of the day, Seattle will probably have more urgency, knowing it has a date with the LA Rams on Thursday night.