Week 16 of the NFL season is a big week for most fantasy football players, considering it is the championship round. The quarterbacks will go a long way in determining those matchups, but we can also be smartly selfish and capitalize on some prop bets as well.
In this article, I will identify the best value in the player-prop betting market from these QB matchups. The odds in this article are from William Hill Sports – Use the promo code TS500 for a 100% first-time sign-up deposit bonus of up to $500.
Mitchell Trubisky (Chicago Bears) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, 1:00 pm EST | Watch: CBS
TIAA Bank Field – Jacksonville, FL
Prop Bets Watch:
- Over 238.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-140)
The Jags’ secondary has been absolutely this season, allowing seven different QBs to pass for 280+ yards against them this season. That’s quite a bit, considering opposing teams don’t need to throw the football in this matchup.
Trubisky has been much more efficient since regaining the Bears’ starting QB position, and now is the time for his stats to real gaudy. Trubisky has only maxed out at 267 (twice) in this recent four-game span, but he does have two different games of throwing three TDs.
Obviously, the emergence of RB David Montgomery has been taking Trubisky’s numbers down. Let’s see if Chicago goes with more play-action passing and gets the former UNC Tar Heel some better-looking personal numbers before the season ends.
Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, 4:25 pm EST | Watch: FOX
CenturyLink Field – Seattle, WA
Prop Bets Watch:
- Under 269.5 Passing Yards (-115)
I took the under on Wilson’s props in the first meeting between the teams, and I’ll do it again. Reason being: this matchup against the Rams has not produced big numbers historically. In fact, DangeRuss has only passed for 300+ yards once in 17 career meetings against the Rams.
Wilson and the Seahawks’ offense haven’t put up huge numbers recently, not passing for over 300+ yards in each of the last six games.
Sure, the Rams did lose to the Jets last week- and everyone will remember that. However, I’m much more of an optimist and believe that LA will have tons of motivation to come out strong defensively. Let’s not forget, the Seahawks are only favored by a small margin (-1.5), leading me to believe that there’s not much success coming their way on Sunday.
More NFL Player Props For Week 16
Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) vs. Tennessee Titans
Sunday, 8:20 pm EST | Watch: NBC
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
Prop Bets Watch:
- Over 304.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+130)
Speaking of odd-looking spreads, the Packers are marginal 3.5-point favorites at home against the Titans on Sunday Night Football. I do believe that Tennessee RB Derrick Henry will have a big day against Green Bay’s porous run defense (which you can read about in the RB props), but there are plenty of reasons to believe that Rodgers will be successful.
For one, the Titans’ pass defense is absolutely atrocious. In fact, they are allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game (276) and rank dead-last in sack rate (2.42%); Tennessee also hasn’t recorded a sack in each of the last three games. When you give Rodgers time to throw, it does nothing but spell trouble.
Rodgers had a string of eight-straight games with multiple TD passes snapped last week. Look for him to get back on track against a defense that can’t get out of its own way.