XFL Betting Picks For Week 4

We’re back with our XFL Betting Picks for Week 4. This week’s matchups include the Los Angeles Wildcats at New York Guardians, Seattle Dragons at St. Louis BattleHawks, Houston Roughnecks at Dallas Renegades & DC Defenders at Tampa Bay Vipers. Let’s get in right into the matchups and see who we like to win!

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Los Angeles Wildcats at New York Guardians (+8/ML: +285) – Total: 39.5

Week 4 XFL Picks

Saturday, Feb. 29, 2020 – 2:00 p.m. EST
MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, NJ

A pair of 1-2 teams do battle, as the Los Angeles Wildcats make the cross-country trip to face the New York Guardians. LA is coming off its first win of the season while New York is on a two-game losing streak, with both defeats coming by a substantial margin. The first of our XFL betting picks is for the Guardians to cover the eight-point spread.

XFL Betting Line: Wildcats at Guardians

LA is the largest road favorite of the week and, on the surface, it comes with good reason. New York has gotten clobbered in each of its last two games, both on the road. However, the Guardians are finally coming back home, and that’s the scene of their only win this season – a 23-3 win over a winless Tampa Bay.

Everyone will likely see the last game from each team and feel like LA is light years ahead of New York. That’s just not the case, though, as there’s a major factor in the Wildcats travel itinerary that will hold them back. LA was a substantial underdog in each of the last two games, and now they’re favored by seven points? It sounds ridiculous. Plus, the 39.5-point total lets you know that the score shouldn’t get too out of hand one way or the other.

Wildcats Betting Form

Last week, LA got its first win of the season – a 39-9 drubbing of DC. That’s great and all, but the Wildcats situation heading into Saturday is almost unimaginable. Not only does LA have to travel across the country, but it’ll be doing so on almost 1.5 days less of preparation. The Wildcats game ended around 9 p.m. EST on Sunday, making this a tough turnaround for this week’s game.

QB Josh Johnson was impressive in Week 3, going 18-for-25 with 278 passing yards and three touchdowns. WR Tre McBride had a huge day with five catches for 109 yards and two touchdowns. Going into Week 3, WR Nelson Spruce was leading the XFL in several receiving categories. However, he is listed as out for this game, making it a huge loss for LA.

Since firing defensive coordinator Pepper Johnson after only one game, LA’s defense has played much better in each of the last two. Especially, last week’s win against DC, which saw them hold QB Cardale Jones to a 13-for-26 day with 103 passing yards and four interceptions.

Guardians Betting Form

Aside from their season-opening win, there hasn’t been a lot of excitement attached to this Guardians team. One of the more optimistic bits of this game is that they’re finally heading back home, where they got their only win.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Marquise Williams or Luis Perez get the start at QB. New York has been lacking big plays from that position, and Perez did lead the team to its only touchdown over the last two weeks. Matt McGloin doesn’t appear to have any type of chemistry with the rest of this Guardians defense; he’s injured and already been ruled out for Saturday. The running game has been able to pick up big chunks of yards (5.3 per carry last week), and that’ll need to be on display against LA. RBs Tim Cook and Darius Victor will lead the way in that regard.

Discipline will be another key factor if New York wants to keep this one close. Last week, the Guardians had 86 yards worth of penalties. This is not a team that is good enough to be giving away free downs and yards like that.

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Week 4 XFL Pick: Guardians +7 (-110)

Luckily, we don’t have to wait too long to see the first crazy line of the week – we get it out of the way nice and early. While LA is certainly the better team here, they’ll basically be walking into this game right off the party bus from Week 3. The Guardians have suffered two straight humiliating defeats, so getting back in front of the home faithful should give them plenty of motivation to have a big performance.

Seattle Dragons at St. Louis BattleHawks (-11/ML: -455) – Total: 39.5

Week 4 XFL Picks

Saturday, Feb. 29, 2020 – 5:00 p.m. EST
The Dome at America’s Center – St. Louis, MO

We’ll have a battle of two teams heading in opposite directions, as the Seattle Dragons travel to face the St. Louis BattleHawks. The Dragons have lost two straight while the BattleHawks have won two of their three games this season. The second of our XFL betting picks is for the BattleHawks to come away with the convincing victory.

XFL Betting Line: Dragons at BattleHawks

This 11-point spread is the largest of the weekend, and it comes with good reason. Seattle has hung tough for the majority of its three games, but we’re starting to see plenty of signs of weakness. Coming into the season, the Dragons were expected to be the league’s worst team; and we really haven’t seen that play out just yet. This could wind up being Seattle’s worst game of the season, as evidenced by the large spread.

Dragons Betting Form

Seattle has some decent pieces, but this team doesn’t have a ton of players that will wow the opposition. QB Brandon Silvers does have six touchdown passes (second-most in the XFL) but is only completing 53.3 percent of his passes and has also thrown four interceptions (also second-most). Starting RB Ja’Quan Gardner hasn’t been great either, running for a league-low 3.2 yards per carry among all starting RBs.

Just as we saw last week, St. Louis is going to have a fantastic advantage playing inside the dome. New York was nowhere near ready for all of that madness, and now Seattle will likely suffer the same fate. Sure, the Dragons are used to their raucous crowd but that’s one that is playing along with their strengths.

BattleHawks Betting Form

According to XFL Statistics on Twitter, the BattleHawks are the highest-rated team in the league; and that’s even over the Roughnecks, who beat them and are the XFL’s only undefeated team at 3-0. Nevertheless, St. Louis does rank second in total defense (270.7 yards allowed per game) and third in total offense (345.7 yards gained per game).

QB Jordan Ta’amu is completing an XFL-high 75 percent of his passes this season and even has the third-highest passer rating (102.3). RB Matt Jones is leading the league by a wide margin with 224 rushing yards. St. Louis will essentially move the ball by establishing the run and then setting up the pass. A lot of these low-risk throws are why Ta’amu is completing such a high percentage of his passes.

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Week 4 XFL Pick: BattleHawks -11 (-110)

Early on in the XFL season, we’re starting to see just how important homefield advantage is. With no more NFL football in St. Louis, these loyal fans are geared up to be wild all season long. Not to mention, the BattleHawks have a pretty damn good football team. It’s a nice combination for a comfortable win in front of the home fans.

Houston Roughnecks (-2/ML: -129) at Dallas Renegades – Total: 49

Week 4 XFL Picks

Sunday, Mar. 1, 2020 – 4:00 p.m. EST
Globe Life Park in Arlington – Arlington, TX

It’ll be the first Texas Two-Step matchup of the XFL season, as the Houston Roughnecks make the short trip to face the Dallas Renegades. Houston is the only undefeated team left in the league, and we believe things will stay the same when this one is all said and done. The third of our XFL betting picks is for the Roughnecks to win outright.

XFL Betting Line: Roughnecks at Renegades

Some might say that this is a trap game – and it very well could be. However, after watching this Houston team three times, it’s apparent that whoever beats them will need to be nearly perfect in doing so. The Roughnecks have the best QB, receiving corps and head coach in the XFL. Good luck trying to stop that.

Roughnecks Betting Form

QB PJ Walker is leading the XFL in completions (67), passing yards (748) and touchdown passes (10) – he has also thrown one interception, which is the fewest among all the QBs to play all three games. Not to mention, Walker is running for 7.3 yards per attempt. He already has a chemistry partner in Cam Phillips, who has a league-high in catches (20), receiving yards (324) and touchdown catches (7). In the rare event the passing game isn’t working, RB James Butler is there to lend a helping hand. Butler has 23 carries for 130 rushing yards (4th-best in XFL) at 5.7 yards per clip (3rd-best in XFL).

Head coach June Jones seems like he may be a bit too advanced for most of the XFL. His run-and-shoot offense is light-years ahead of what the rest of the league is trying to do at this point. With the truly gifted Walker and plenty of weaponry at his disposal, we’ll need to see a team stop Houston before we actually believe it can happen.

Renegades Betting Form

QB Landry Jones has rattled off wins in each of his first two XFL starts. Albeit, both of those wins coming in tight games on the road. This, however, will be Jones’ biggest challenge since coming to the league. RB Cameron Artis-Payne will need to shoulder some of the load and keep the ball away from Houston’s offense. Artis-Payne does have the second-most rushing yards (185) and yards per attempt (6.4) of anyone with at least 10 carries.

This could very well end up being the Roughnecks’ biggest test of the season. Especially with this being a matchup of two teams in proximity, we’re bound to see some fireworks. At the end of the day, though, Houston will have a bit more firepower to get it done.

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Week 4 XFL Pick: Roughnecks -2 (-110)

Walker and Phillips are quickly becoming a household name in this league. Sooner or later, one of these teams will start giving Phillips double- and triple-coverage. But until we actually see that for ourselves, we have no choice to keep rolling with Houston.

DC Defenders (-2.5/ML: -136) at Tampa Bay Vipers – Total: 44

Week 4 XFL Picks

Sunday, Mar. 1, 2020 – 7:00 p.m. EST
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL

The Week 4 finale takes place down South, as the DC Defenders travel to take on the winless Tampa Bay Vipers. DC was just handed its first loss of the season, a 39-9 drubbing at the hands of the LA Wildcats. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is just looking to finally get a win and make something of the season. The last of our XFL betting picks is for the Defenders to get the win and cover the 2.5-point spread.

XFL Betting Line: Defenders at Vipers

This is somewhat of a surprising spread, considering the oddsmakers might be overreacting a little bit to DC’s loss last week. Everyone was ready to crown DC as the top team in the league before the Week 3 shellacking. However, one big loss has everyone running for the hills. We need to remember that Tampa Bay is probably the most poorly coached team in the XFL. DC finally got a taste of what the road life is like in this league. Now, they’ll be much more prepared heading into Sunday’s game.

Defenders Betting Form

QB Cardale Jones doesn’t lose games often, but last week’s embarrassing performance in LA should serve as a wakeup call. Jones looked all out of sorts, throwing four interceptions en route to the loss. Sure, we could chalk this up to his first road start in the XFL, and even the Defenders possibly getting a case of the “LA flu” – aka spending too much time in one of the most glamorous cities.

Jones does have a plethora of weapons to get the ball too. WRs Rashaad Ross and Eli Rogers combine to make one of the most formidable duos in the league. Unfortunately, RBs Donnel Pumphrey and Jhurell Pressley have not been gashing the opposing defenses much yet early in the season. DC’s offensive line certainly needs some work, so that’ll be an important scheme fit to monitor going forward.

Vipers Betting Form

Tampa Bay has all of the talent in the world on this roster; unfortunately, the man leading them has no idea what he’s doing. Head coach Mark Trestman has already created waves with assistant head coaches. A number of them have already called out Trestman publicly, saying that his plays calls are too conservative and he’s not taking advantage of the offensively-driven rules that could potentially help his team move the ball.

Finally, the Vipers got an offensive touchdown last week and even hung tough with one of the best team – the Houston Roughnecks. Another part of Tampa Bay’s problem is that they don’t know who is going to be playing quarterback. Aaron Murray will come back this week, but Trestman is only going to “ease him in,” or whatever the hell that means. Rotating different quarterbacks to run the offense is just always a recipe for disaster. Quinton Flowers will not be among those quarterbacks, as he has taken a “leave of absence” from the Vipers.

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Week 4 XFL Pick: Defenders at Vipers

Quite simply, we’ve got one of the XFL’s best quarterbacks going against a two-man rotation of quarterbacks. DC got thoroughly embarrassed in their last game while Tampa Bay is essentially used to getting embarrassed already this season. We believe DC will get back on the good foot and win this one convincingly against Tampa Bay.

Al Walsh
Al Walsh Chief Sports Writer