Wednesday night around the diamond promises to be another good one, with plenty of great matchups to cover. I’ll touch on two of the same matchups from last night – the St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals – in addition to the Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins.
Yesterday’s article provided another winning day, at 2-1. The Reds took a beating early from the Cardinals and never recovered, while the Indians destroyed the Royals to cover the run line and the Chicago Cubs-Pittsburgh Pirates game went well over the 9.5 total.
In this article, we’ll take a look at the odds and best value MLB picks we can find from a few of today’s games. All of the odds are according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
6:40 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Starting Pitchers
STL: Johan Oviedo – R (0-1, 3.60 ERA/1.00 WHIP this season)
CIN: Tyler Mahle – R (1-1, 3.91 ERA/1.13 WHIP this season)
Total: 10 runs | Over: -107 | Under: -114
STL | Moneyline: +135 | Run Line +1.5: -152
CIN | Moneyline: -157 | Run Line -1.5: +125
Where’s the Money Going? (as of 11 a.m. EST)
Moneyline: STL, 58% of bets | CIN, 66% of money
Run Line: STL, 68% of bets | STL, 94% of money
Total: Over, 65% of bets | N/A % of money
Betting Pick: Reds Run Line -1.5: +125
I mean, the Reds have to get one of these games, right? After all, they do have the law of averages on their side, and there is a decent discrepancy of Cardinals public money and Reds total money. Cincy also has an implied team total increase of +0.4.
This pick is not for the faint of heart, as the Cardinals have won five of the six meetings against the Reds this season. It’s worth noting the only Cincy win covered the run line. The Reds don’t have much value on the moneyline, making the run line somewhat of a calculated gamble.
Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals
8:05 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Starting Pitchers
CLE: Triston McKenzie – R (1-0, 2.70 ERA/0.90 WHIP this season)
KC: Jakob Junis – R (0-0, 4.26 ERA/1.58 WHIP this season)
Total: 9 runs | Over: -106 | Under: -115
CLE | Moneyline: -175 | Run Line -1.5: -104
KC | Moneyline: +145 | Run Line +1.5: -115
Where’s the Money Going? (as of 11 a.m. EST)
Moneyline: CLE, 66% of bets | KC, 67% of money
Run Line: CLE, 97% of bets | CLE, 88% of money
Total: Over, 57% of bets | Over, 91% of money
Betting Pick: Royals First 5 Innings Moneyline (+180)
Speaking of calculated risks, let’s take one here with the underdog Royals. After all, the Indians have been favored by at least -200 in four of their five meetings this season. Looking at the money, there is another huge discrepancy where Cleveland is getting the majority of bets but KC has a lot more money heading its way.
This is also a chance for us to take a shot against the Indians without one of their better starters on the mound. McKenzie has pitched well in his first two MLB starts, allowing only three runs over 10 innings. Junis has done a fine job so far, holding all of his opponents to three runs or fewer in three starts this season. We’re getting better odds on the Royals five-inning moneyline (+180, as opposed to +145) in the entire game. Plus, in this instance, we shouldn’t have to deal with Cleveland’s bullpen.
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
8:10 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Starting Pitchers
CHW: Reynaldo Lopez – R (0-1, 9.00 ERA/2.00 WHIP this season)
MIN: Jose Berrios – R (2-3, 4.75 ERA/1.47 WHIP this season)
Total: 9 runs | Over: -122 | Under: +102
CHW | Moneyline: +132 | Run Line +1.5: -148
MIN | Moneyline: -157 | Run Line -1.5: +125
Where’s the Money Going? (as of 11 a.m. EST)
Moneyline: MIN, 51% of bets | MIN, 84% of money
Run Line: CHW, 53% of bets | MIN, 55% of money
Total: Over, 75% of bets | Over, 93% of money
Betting Pick: Twins Run Line -1.5 (+125)
I’m feeling dicey today, with a 5-1 record in MLB over the last two days. This must be the day of taking calculated risks because I’m going to take another one. Of course, the first major takeaway is that the number of bets is split while the Twins side is taking nearly all of the money. The next is that one of the five meetings between the teams this season had a winning margin one run – every other game was at least three runs or more. Tonight, it’s time for Minnesota to do some of the clubbing in this three-game series.
Berrios owns an 11-2 record and 2.76 ERA in 15 career starts against Chicago. In comparison, Lopez has a dreadful 1-5 record and 6.48 ERA in eight career starts against the Twins – he has also allowed nine HRs in just 41 2/3 innings.
