One of the hardest things when learning how to bet on baseball is to determine when to rely on statistics and when to ignore them. Sports betting is all about information and using it in the correct way, and it’s easy to get sucked into the idea that a team is supposed to be good or bad based on previous performance.
Take the San Francisco Giants of last season. They became one of the best bets in baseball, winning more than 100 games, yet most bettors didn’t board the Giants’ train until it was too late to get much value. San Fran was still seen as a wreck from past years, even as they kept winning and winning and winning.
On the other hand, using past stats with individuals tends to work out fairly well, especially when most of the variables remain the same. If a pitcher has good numbers in one ballpark in his career or against a particular lineup, he’s probably going to fair pretty well facing the same players on the same field — something to always consider when making a prop bet.
With all of this in mind, here are the MLB odds, schedule, starting pitchers and predictions for April 15.
MLB Odds, Schedule and Starting Pitchers
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets
Run Line: ARI: +1.5 (-105) | NYM: -1.5 (-115)
Moneyline: ARI: +180 | NYM: -225
Over/Under: 8 (-110)
Diamondbacks vs. Mets Starting Pitchers: Zach Davies (ARI) vs. Chris Bassitt (NYM)
Diamondbacks vs. Mets Game Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
Diamondbacks vs. Mets Location: Citi Field, New York
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox
Run Line: MIN: +1.5 (-165) | BOS: -1.5 (+140)
Moneyline: MIN: +110 | BOS: -135
Over/Under: 10 (-110)
Twins vs. Red Sox Starting Pitchers: Joe Ryan (MIN) vs. Nick Pivetta (BOS)
Twins vs. Red Sox Game Time: 2:10 p.m. EST
Twins vs. Red Sox Location: Fenway Park, Boston
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Run Line: WSH: -1.5 (+145) | PIT: +1.5 (-175)
Moneyline: WSH: -110 | PIT: -110
Over/Under: 9 (-110)
Nationals vs. Pirates Starting Pitchers: Erick Fedde (WSH) vs. Mitch Keller (PIT)
Nationals vs. Pirates Game Time: 6:35 p.m. EST
Nationals vs. Pirates Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
Run Line: PHI: -1.5 (+165) | MIA: +1.5 (-200)
Moneyline: PHI: +100 | MIA: -120
Over/Under: 7.5 (-110)
Phillies vs. Marlins Starting Pitchers: Zach Eflin (PHI) vs. Pablo Lopez (MIA)
Phillies vs. Marlins Game Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
Phillies vs. Marlins Location: LoanDepot Park, Miami
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Run Line: NYY: -1.5 (+155) | BAL: +1.5 (+105)
Moneyline: NYY: -200 | BAL: +170
Over/Under: 9 (-110)
Yankees vs. Orioles Starting Pitchers: Jordan Montgomery (NYY) vs. Jordan Lyles (BAL)
Yankees vs. Orioles Game Time: 7:05 p.m. EST
Yankees vs. Orioles Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore
Oakland Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Run Line: OAK: +1.5 (-130) | TOR: -1.5 (+105)
Moneyline: OAK: +150 | TOR: -185
Over/Under: 9.5 (-110)
Athletics vs. Blue Jays Starting Pitchers: Daulton Jefferies (OAK) vs. Ross Stripling (TOR)
Athletics vs. Blue Jays Game Time: 7:07 p.m. EST
Athletics vs. Blue Jays Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto
San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians
Run Line: SF: -1.5 (+110) | CLE: +1.5 (-135)
Moneyline: SF: -150 | CLE: +125
Over/Under: 8 (-110)
Giants vs. Guardians Starting Pitchers: Carlos Rodon (SF) vs. Zach Plesac (CLE)
Giants vs. Guardians Game Time: 7:10 p.m. EST
Giants vs. Guardians Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox
Run Line: TB: +1.5 (-200) | CHW: -1.5 (+165)
Moneyline: TB: +105 | CHW: -125
Over/Under: 8 (-110)
Rays vs. White Sox Starting Pitchers: Drew Rasmussen (TB) vs. Dylan Cease (CHW)
Rays vs. White Sox Game Time: 7:10 p.m. EST
Rays vs. White Sox Location: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago
Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers
Run Line: LAA: -1.5 (+125) | TEX: +1.5 (-155)
Moneyline: LAA: -120 | TEX: +100
Over/Under: 10 (-110)
Angels vs. Rangers Starting Pitchers: Reid Detmers (LAA) vs. Matt Bush (TEX)
Angels vs. Rangers Game Time: 8:05 p.m. EST
Angels vs. Rangers Location: Globe Life Field, Arlington, Texas
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Run Line: STL: +1.5 (-155) | MIL: -1.5 (+125)
Moneyline: STL: +125 | MIL: -155
Over/Under: 8.5 (-110)
Cardinals vs. Brewers Starting Pitchers: Miles Mikolas (STL) vs. Freddy Peralta (MIL)
Cardinals vs. Brewers Game Time: 8:10 p.m. EST
Cardinals vs. Brewers Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals
Run Line: DET: +1.5 (-190) | KC: -1.5 (+155)
Moneyline: DET: +105 | KC: -125
Over/Under: 8.5 (-110)
Tigers vs. Royals Starting Pitchers: Tarik Skubal (DET) vs. Brad Keller (KC)
Tigers vs. Royals Game Time: 8:10 p.m. EST
Tigers vs. Royals Location: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies
Run Line: CHC: +1.5 (-185) | COL: -1.5 (+150)
Moneyline: CHC: +100 | COL: -120
Over/Under: 10 (-110)
Cubs vs. Rockies Starting Pitchers: Marcus Stroman (CHC) vs. German Marquez (COL)
Cubs vs. Rockies Game Time: 8:40 p.m. EST
Cubs vs. Rockies Location: Coors Field, Denver
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres
Run Line: ATL: -1.5 (+155) | SD: +1.5 (-190)
Moneyline: ATL: -105 | SD: -115
Over/Under: 8.5 (-110)
Braves vs. Padres Starting Pitchers: Kyle Wright (ATL) vs. MacKenzie Gore (SD)
Braves vs. Padres Game Time: 9:40 p.m. EST
Braves vs. Padres Location: Petco Park, San Diego
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners
Run Line: HOU: -1.5 (+135) | SEA: +1.5 (-160)
Moneyline: HOU: -120 | SEA: +100
Over/Under: 8.5 (-110)
Astros vs. Mariners Starting Pitchers: Jake Odorizzi (HOU) vs. Marco Gonzales (SEA)
Astros vs. Mariners Game Time: 9:42 p.m. EST
Astros vs. Mariners Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Run Line: CIN: +1.5 (+100) | LAD: -1.5 (-120)
Moneyline: CIN: +195 | LAD: -250
Over/Under: 9 (-110)
Reds vs. Dodgers Starting Pitchers: Vladimir Gutierrez (CIN) vs. Tony Gonsolin (LAD)
Reds vs. Dodgers Game Time: 10:10 p.m. EST
Reds vs. Dodgers Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
MLB Predictions Today and Best Bets
As noted above, stats are an important part of MLB betting. With all 30 teams in action today, we will have lots to choose from. Here are my predictions and best bets for April 15.
MLB Best Bet April 15: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals (-110), 6:35 p.m. EST, available at BetMGM
The Washington Nationals are leading the Majors in strikeouts with 74 through eight games. And that’s good news for Pirates starter Mitch Keller. Reports out of the Pirates’ spring camp said that Keller’s velocity was up from 93 MPH to around 97 MPH on his fastball, and although he allowed four runs to the Cardinals in four innings, he did rack up four strikeouts in his first start of the season in St. Louis.
With his increased velocity and Washington being a team that does not put the ball in play, this is an ideal time for Keller to prove his Spring Training success wasn’t just a mirage. I like the Pirates to pick up their third win in a row this evening.
MLB Best Prop Bet April 15: Tarik Skubal Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110) vs. Kansas City Royals, 8:10 p.m. EST, available at BetMGM
This is a play I picked up on last night while Detroit Tigers fans were melting down over Casey Mize’s two-strikeout performance against the Kansas City Royals. So far in this young season, Kansas City simply isn’t striking out all that much. Only St. Louis has fewer strikeouts than the Royals, who haven’t struck out more than four times against any starting pitcher this season. The KC offense also hasn’t struck out more than seven times in a single game in 2022.
The Royals are only hitting .208 on the season, so don’t mistake this for Kansas City putting up an explosion of offense. But so far, the team has excelled at putting the ball in play. And with Tigers starter Tarik Skubal coming off a four-inning, three-strikeout performance against the White Sox, the Royals should be able to make contact enough to hit the under here. This makes Skubal’s strikeout prop my best bet of the day.
MLB Best Bet April 15: San Fransisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians First Five Under 4 Runs (-110), 7:10 p.m. EST, available at BetMGM
Carlos Rodon is no stranger to pitching against the Cleveland Guardians, as he came over to the San Fransisco Giants after spending the first seven years of his career with their AL Central-foe Chicago White Sox. The left-hander faced the Guardians three times last season, with two elite performances. He threw a complete game shutout in one and held Cleveland to two runs (one earned) in five innings in another. Even his one bad start wasn’t so bad, giving up five runs in six innings while striking out eight.
That should pair well with Guardians starter Zach Plesac, who looked sharp in holding Kansas City to no runs and three hits over 5.2 innings in his first start of the 2022 MLB season. I’m relying on the two starting pitchers to get the job done in the early going in this contest, and making the first five under 4 runs my best bet for April 15.
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