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MLB Betting Tips for Wednesday (9/4/19)

Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds

Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox

San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals

Philadelphia Phillies (-125) at Cincinnati Reds

Time: 6:40 p.m. EST

Starting Pitchers

PHI: Aaron Nola – R (12-4, 3.45 ERA/1.21 WHIP)

CIN: Trevor Bauer – R (10-12, 4.53 ERA/1.29 WHIP)

The Phillies missed a golden opportunity inch closer to the Cubs over the weekend, but they’ve won three straight games now to at least keep pace. While the Reds have fallen out of the playoff race, they do have some motivation to not get swept in this series. The over has seen plenty of bets early on for tonight’s total, but there might be a few reasons why that’s the wrong move.

Phillies Betting Form

Aaron Nola has stayed true to form as one of the best pitchers in baseball, allowing three runs or fewer in all six of his starts since the beginning of August. This is the time when Philly needs him most, as they try and make this last-month push towards the playoffs. As for Nola against Cincy, this is a matchup that has worked well before, considering their current roster owns a .171 batting average and four extra-base hits 82 career plate appearances.

Reds Betting Form

The trade for Trevor Bauer to Cincy certainly hasn’t been one the team can be happy about. However, there’s something about Great American Ballpark that’s sitting well with him this season – even as a member of the Reds. In three starts there this season, Bauer owns a 2-1 record and 1.71 ERA/0.86 WHIP while striking out 31 batters – a span of 21 innings.

Betting Tip: Under 8.5

While Bauer’s numbers with the Reds aren’t great, it’s hard to ignore the success he’s had at Great American Ballpark this season. Not to mention, Nola is on top of his game and the Reds have only scored two runs in the first two games of this series.

Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox (-135)

Time: 7:10 p.m. EST

Starting Pitchers

MIN: Jose Berrios – R (11-7, 3.57 ERA/1.22 WHIP)

BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (16-5, 3.97 ERA/1.36 WHIP)

The Twins ended up taking the first game of the series in a close one last night and now send their ace to the mound on Wednesday. While that loss may have been a death blow for the Red Sox, you can’t expect the defending champs to go out quietly to close out the season. Tonight’s matchup should be a very intriguing one that we’ll all be tuned into.

Twins Betting Form

Jose Berrios is starting to deteriorate as the season comes a close and that’s probably why the Red Sox opened as such a large favorite. Berrios have three starts over his last five allowing five runs or more, with some of those coming against lesser-quality opponents.

As we’ll see in a bit, the Twins excel greatly against left-handed pitching. That should get them off to a fast start in this one, but we’re not exactly sure that’ll win them the game.

Red Sox Betting Form

Eduardo Rodriguez has benefitted from the Red Sox’ offense all season, owning a solid 16-5 record while not necessarily having the best traditional numbers. While the Twins have the best-advanced metrics in a number of different categories against left-handed pitching, E-Rod has gotten a double-digit number of ground-ball outs in each of his last five starts. Good news for the Red Sox as well, as he owns a solid 7-1 record and 3.53 ERA n 13 starts at Fenway Park this season.

The Red Sox’ offense is starting to look better after that road trip out West. They should be just fine against Berrios and the Twins’ bullpen is tonight’s matchup.

Betting Tip: Over 11

The Red Sox may very well win this game with such a high moneyline, but it appears like the total going over is the right move. Both teams’ IRTs (implied run totals) have increased +0.3 shortly after the game hit the betting marketplace. Not to mention, the Twins really do hit left-handed pitching so well. We should expect to see plenty of fireworks at Fenway Park tonight, and it’s slightly less money to lay that way.

San Francisco Giants (+110) at St. Louis Cardinals

Time: 7:45 p.m. EST

Starting Pitchers

SF: Madison Bumgarner – L (9-8, 3.62 ERA/1.09 WHIP)

STL: Michael Wacha – R (6-6, 5.07 ERA/1.55 WHIP)

Aside from one start, Madison Bumgarner has looked magnificent since mid-August. In that time frame, the barreling lefty has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts – one run or fewer in three of those. Tonight’s matchup against the Cardinals is one that should bode well, considering they’ve scored three runs or fewer in five of their last seven games.

Giants Betting Form

Aside from one start, Madison Bumgarner has looked magnificent since mid-August. In that time frame, the barreling lefty has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts – one run or fewer in three of those. Tonight’s matchup against the Cardinals is one that should bode well, considering they’ve scored three runs or fewer in five of their last seven games.

Even though the Giants’ offense hasn’t shown it in the first two games of this series, they are a much better team offensively on the road – and how could they not be? After all, their home ballpark is where offense goes to die, so playing there for 81 games per season can really kill your confidence at times.

Cardinals Betting Form

Michael Wacha has done a decent job of rebounding from a disastrous start to the season. What he hasn’t been doing, though, is going deep into games. Wacha can certainly limit the damage once again, it’s just a matter of whether the offense will back him up against a solid pitcher in Bumgarner.

Betting Tip: Giants (+110)

With Bumgarner on the mound and the Giants desperate to get a win in this series, this is great value to take the underdog. And it goes without saying, they can definitely steal one here in St. Louis with this team struggling so bad offensively at the moment.