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Monday Night Football Pick | Week 11

In this article, we’ll provide you with our top Week 11 Monday Night Football pick between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers. We study the betting lines, teams, and players to give you our recommended NFL betting pick to beat the New Jersey sportsbooks!

Week 11 Monday Night Football Betting Pick: Chiefs at Chargers

Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at Los Angeles Chargers – O/U: 52.5

Monday, November 18, 2019 – 8:15 p.m. EST

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Week 11 MNF Pick: Chargers (+4)

Week 11 concludes with a fierce AFC West matchup between the 6-4 Kansas City Chiefs and 4-6 Los Angeles Chargers. The Chiefs have a slight lead in the division, but the Chargers are right in the thick of the race. Our Monday Night Football pick is for the Chargers to cover the four-point spread. Let’s dive into the numbers to see how we landed on this conclusion.

Week 11 MNF Betting Lines: Chiefs at Chargers

It’s not much of a surprise, but the Chiefs are getting a ton of backing in this Week 11 MNF matchup. An overwhelming 75% of public bets are heading in that direction while 68% of all money wagered is as well. The majority of people look at the Chiefs and think their offense is fully capable of running up the score in any matchup. However, there’s much more to this matchup that should have the masses a bit worried. We’ll explain further…

Chiefs Betting Form

Sure, QB Patrick Mahomes can throw a football across state lines and do it in the flashiest of ways. Despite missing a few games, Mahomes still ranks third in passing touchdowns (18) and sixth in passing yards (2,626).  The Chargers pass defense has been solid this season, and this is a spot where we’ll likely see them come up big. In fact, Mahomes has failed to throw for 300 yards in each of his two career meetings against LA.

The Chiefs defense has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game (148.1). Although the Chargers don’t necessarily pound the rock on a regular basis, they do have a duo of running backs that can certainly make life difficult on this defense. When looking at this team as a whole, the defense is holding them back from being one of the league’s elite.

This game will be played in the high altitude of Mexico City at Azteca Stadium, and that doesn’t bode well for a Chiefs defense that has been overworked this season. While the Chargers prepared for the high altitude in Colorado this week, the Chiefs did not. Look for that to certainly be a difference in this one.

Chargers Betting Form

QB Philip Rivers leads the NFL with 2,816 passing yards, but keeping the ball away from the Chiefs offense will be the main point of emphasis. It’s quite interesting that Rivers holds this honor, considering he doesn’t have the arm strength that you’d expect to lead the league in that stat. Nonetheless, the Chargers offense is predicated on getting the ball to their playmakers in space.

Look for RBs Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler to play a pivotal role in this game. As we mentioned earlier, the Chiefs run defense has been atrocious, and that should allow this duo to excel in all aspects of the game. The Chargers have the NFL’s seventh-worst rushing attack this season, with 86.1 yards per game, but that average has been upped over the last three weeks with 113.7 yards per game. 

The Chargers are allowing the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (207.8) and they’ll need to keep that up against this high-flying aerial attack. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are at the top of their game, combining for nine sacks over the last four games.

Week 11 MNF Pick: Chargers (+4)

The Chiefs have lost four of the last six games, with defense being the main culprit. One thing we know about the Chargers is that they finish each regular season strong under Rivers. With the time running out to keep pace in the AFC West, look for the Chargers to come out with an inspired effort and keep this game close until the very end.