In this article, we’ll provide you with our top football betting pick for the Week 12 Thursday Night Football between the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans. We’ll study the odds, betting lines, teams, and players to give you our recommended betting pick to beat the New Jersey sportsbooks.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-3.5) – O/U: 46.5
Thursday, November 21, 2019 – 8:20 p.m. EST
TNF Week 12 Pick: Under 46.5
This is a pivotal primetime matchup of 6-4 teams atop the AFC South as the Indianapolis Colts hit the road on a short week to face the Houston Texans. The Colts took the first meeting between the teams this season, but we’ve got a feeling this one will be different. Our top betting pick is for the total to go under 46.5 points. Let’s take a look at the facts and see why we’re heading in this direction.
TNF Week 12 Betting Lines: Colts at Texans
The Texans are getting overwhelming support at the start, with 69% of public bets and 86% of all money wagered in their direction. Additionally, 60% of public bets and 88% of all money wagered is going toward the over. Obviously, we’re in disagreement with the masses on the total, which we’ll discuss moving forward. There are too many factors at play that should keep this TNF game low-scoring.
Indianapolis Colts Form
The Colts wiped themselves up off the mat in Week 11 with a convincing win over the Jaguars. That win came after two horrifying close loses to the Steelers and Dolphins.
For Indy, the true advantage in this game will come on the offensive line. Before last week, Houston was allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards in the NFL. Then it gave up 263 yards (7.3 per carry) to Baltimore on the road. That could come a little tougher with RB Marlon Mack out indefinitely after suffering a broken hand last week. Not to worry, Jonathan Williams relieved Mack last week and rushed for a whopping 116 yards on 13 carries. Running the ball will keep the clock moving, and us bettors of the under will be happy about that.
QB Jacoby Brissett had 4 TD-0 INT with 326 passing yards in the Week 7 win against the Texans. However, this time could be a lot different if WR T.Y. Hilton misses yet another game. Hilton had increased workouts during recent practices, but he’s not fully cleared yet. In Hilton’s words, “I’ll play if I check all the boxes.”
On the defensive side of the ball, the Colts will be missing S Khari Willis. CB Pierre Desir (who missed Sunday’s game) is also uncertain for this match. Indy is slightly above-average in every statistical category on defense, so that should continue to bode well. We’ll highlight more in the Texans blurb, but there’s a key factor in keeping the score low.
The Colts have won and covered five of the last six meetings against the Texans. They’re also 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games in Houston. Not to mention, Indy is also 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record.
Houston Texans Form
That marquee Ravens-Texans matchup ended up looking like a JV vs. Varsity scrimmage, with the Ravens winning by the score of 41-7. The Texans were coming off their bye week and certainly weren’t ready for that game. Luckily, they’ll have the opportunity to right the wrongs of Sunday in this short-week matchup against the Colts.
Sunday’s game against the Ravens was a reminder of how bad this offensive line was in the past. After only being sacked seven times over the previous five games, the Ravens got QB Deshaun Watson six times. That’s not good, especially on a short week, considering Watson has been sacked a total of 15 times in three career games against the Colts. If that trend continues, look for the Texans to be in situations that will make it difficult to keep the chains moving.
As we mentioned earlier, this Texans defense was absolutely shredded in that last game. Things should be different on Thursday, but stopping the run will be vital. This isn’t the same defense without J.J. Watt gone for the year and Jadeveon Clowney in Seattle. However, a bit of motivation and a traveling opponent on a short week goes in their favor.
Injury news: WR Will Fuller and CB Bradley Roby will likely be game-time decisions.
TNF Week 12 Pick: Under 46.5
There are plenty of trends moving in our direction for this TNF Week 12 match-up. Mainly, that four of the last six meetings between the teams have gone under the total. 12 of the Colts last 18 road games have gone under the total. Also, seven of the last eight Texans game at home have suffered the same fate. Both teams have already seen a -0.5 dip on their implied team totals and that’s right in unison with our Thursday Night Football pick.
|Colts||+163||+3.5 (-110)||Over 45.5 (-110)|
|Texans||-200||-3.5 (-110)||Under 45.5 (-110)|
SugarHouse odds at the time of publishing