MLB Betting Preview: ATL Braves at PHI Phillies (8/8/20)

The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies will finally begin their series after last night’s game was rained out. Surprisingly, the Braves are chasing the red-hot Miami Marlins for first place in the division, and a win over the Phils would certainly help in this shortened season.

Tonight’s pitching matchup will be two right-handers going against each other, as Kyle Wright will go for Atlanta and Jake Arrieta will go for Philly. It was initially supposed to be Vince Velasquez going for the Phils, but manager Joe Girardi decided to go with Arrieta this time around; Velasquez will likely get the nod in one of the two games in tomorrow’s doubleheader.

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies

Citizens Bank Park – Philadelphia, PA
6:05 p.m. EST (Watch: MLB Network)

Starting Pitchers

ATL: Kyle Wright – R (0-1, 7.50 ERA/2.67 WHIP this season)
PHI: Jake Arrieta – R (0-1, 5.40 ERA/1.40 WHIP this season)

Odds & Betting lines (bet365)

Total: 10 runs | Over: -110 | Under: -110
ATL | Moneyline: -115 | Run Line (+1.5): -192
PHI | Moneyline: -105 | Run Line (-1.5): +167

Injury List

ATL: Matt Adams -IF (IL), Ozzie Albies -IF (IL), Chris Martin -RP (IL)
PHI: none

Interesting Stats

Where’s the Money Going?

As of 10:30 a.m. EST today, here are the betting percentages:
Moneyline: ATL, 52% of bets – 66% of all money wagered
Run Line: N/A
Total: Under, 60% of bets – Under, 57% of all money wagered

Wright Tries to Solidify ATL Rotation

The Braves rotation has been decimated by injury this season, so Wright will look to sure it up. Things certainly haven’t gone well for Wright in his first two starts, allowing nine hits, seven walks and an opposing batting average of .346.

Too Many Doubleheaders for Philly

With yesterday’s rainout, the Phils now have six doubleheaders scheduled. But who knows, maybe it’s a good thing. With all of the struggles with the bullpen, perhaps these six-inning games will be better suited for them.

Betting Picks

Over 10 Runs (-110)

Both teams have been doing quite well against right-handed pitching this season, as the Braves rank first in weighted on-base average (.358) while the Phillies rank ninth (.324). In addition, Atlanta ranks third in ISO (.217) – a metric used to quantify power. I’m not a believer in Wright just yet and Arrieta hasn’t been effective much in time as a member of the Phils. Not to mention, Philly’s bullpen an MLB-worst 7.89 ERA this season.