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MLB Betting Preview: MIL Brewers @ CHI Cubs (8/14/20)

After nearly being no-hit by Yu Darvish in last night’s matchup, the Brewers look to bounce back against the Cubs in Chicago. This time, they’ll get to send out an ace of their own as Brandon Woodruff toes the rubber. In response, the hometown Cubs will counter with the up-and-down Tyler Chatwood. 

Should we bet on the Brewers bouncing back? Let’s see what the odds have to say. 

Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs

Wrigley Field – Chicago, IL – 8:15 PM ET

Game Info/Starting Pitchers:

MIL: Brandon Woodruff – R (2020: 2.53 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 0.6 WAR, 21.1 IP)

CHC: Tyler Chatwood – R (Last Season: 3.76 ERA, 4.28 FIP, 0.6 WAR, 76.2 IP)

Odds & Betting lines (PointsBet)

Total: 8 | Over: -115 | Under: -107
MIL | Moneyline: -110 | Run Line (-1.5): +140
CHC| Moneyline: +100 | Run Line (+1.5): -154

Game Notes

Gas is Good

In Brandon Woodruff’s breakout 2019, the righty saw improvement across the board. Arguably the most crucial of these was the hurler’s uptick in velocity. 

After sitting in the 94-96 mph range in his first two seasons, Woodruff suddenly began throwing 97 mph in 2019. In 2020, Woodruff’s fastball is top-6 in the league. Thanks to this, the then-26-year-old posted career highs in strikeouts, walks, and chases outside the zone. 

As explained in today’s Padres preview with Dinelson Lamet, expect Woodruff to be on top of his game for as long as he has his top-level stuff. 

Where’d They All Go?

In 2019, the Brewers wielded a fairly successful offense, finishing top-12 in position player wRC+. Unfortunately, this year’s lineup barely resembles their potent predecessor. While former NL MVP Christian Yelich remains, the team has already lost Yasmani Grandal, Eric Thames, Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw, and Lorenzo Cain to free agency and COVID opt-out.

This team still has the talent to compete, but it will be tough for Yelich, 2B Keston Hiura, and the new guys to pick up all the slack from a year ago. 

Betting Picks

CHC +1.5 (-154)

Although Woodruff’s dominance may render the Cubs home underdogs, they still have a good shot at keeping it close. After all, Chicago undoubtedly has the better offense, regardless of whether recently-injured Kris Bryant is in the lineup. And while Tyler Chatwood isn’t a very good pitcher, he’s talented enough to keep the score close in shorter stints.