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MLB Betting Preview: MIL Brewers @ MIN Twins (8/18/20)

In another formerly-rare interleague matchup, the Brewers and Twins face off in Minnesota. Going for the 10-10 Brewers will be young righty Corbin Byrnes. Meanwhile, 15-8 Minnesota will send out longtime Dodger Kenta Maeda.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the game’s best betting angles.

Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins

Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins

Target Field, Minneapolis, MN – 8:10 PM ET

Game Info/Starting Pitchers:

MIL: Corbin Burnes – R (Last Season: 8.82 ERA, 6.09 FIP, -0.3 WAR, 49 IP)
MIN: Kenta Maeda – R (Last Season: 4.04 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 2.5 WAR, 153.2 IP)

Odds & Betting lines (DraftKings)

Total: 9 | Over: -112 | Under: -109
MIL: | Moneyline: +150 | Run Line (+1.5): -148
MIN: | Moneyline: -167 | Run Line (-1.5): +125

Game Notes

Where’s Lady Luck?

On the surface, Corbin Burnes’ first 103 MLB innings don’t look pretty. His 5.68 career ERA is horrendous, and his 4.82 FIP is still below average. Despite this, however, I remain bullish for Burnes’ career prospects. Primarily, this faith rests in Burnes’ above-average 28.5% strikeout rate, his 95.8 mph velocity, and his 3.57 career SIERA. These three predictors–two rudimentary and one complex–all point to a comfortably above-average arm. With a 3.38 ERA through his first 4 2020 games, Burnes’ luck may finally be turning a corner.

Betting Picks

Brewers Moneyline (+150)

Building off of this angle on Burnes, we can back the Brewers as a strong underdog play. Burnes is not ace material (just yet), but he’s still much better than his current reputation suggests. The Twins’ offense is great–especially at home–but Milwaukee has a respectable lineup and a talented bullpen that can help keep things close.