MLB Betting Preview: ARI D-backs at SD Padres (7/25/2020)

After opening the season with their aces, the Diamondbacks and Padres now turn to their trusty No. 2’s.

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres

Petco Park, San Diego, California – 9:10 PM EST

STARTING PITCHERS

ARI: Robbie Ray – L (Last Season: 4.34 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 2.4 WAR, 174.1 IP)
SDP: Dinelson Lamet – R (Last Season: 4.07 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 1.3 WAR, 73 IP)

Odds & Betting Lines (PointsBet)

Total: 8.5 | Over: -110 | Under: +-110
ARI | Moneyline: +105 | Run Line: (+1.5) -191
SDP | Moneyline: -125 | Run Line: (-1.5): +160

Injury List

ARI: SP Mike Leake, RP Silvino Bracho
SDP
: None

Interesting Stats

K Machines

Although they aren’t considered elite, both Ray and Lamet have the repertoire of an upper-echelon hurler. Since 2017, Ray’s 31.9% strikeout rate is 5th in baseball. Meanwhile, Lamet impressed with a 33.6% rate himself in 2019 (albeit in 73 innings). With hitters still working to hone their timing, this game could easily become a strikeout fest.

Platoon Problems

While their ‘stuff’ is great, neither pitcher has seemed to figure out opposite-handed batters.

Career FIP vs Lefties and Righties

NameFIP vs LeftFIP vs Right
Robbie Ray2.82 (elite)4.34 (uninspiring)
Dinelson Lamet4.71 (below average)3.64 (solid)

Betting Picks

ARI Over 1, First 3 Innings (-110)

In 2019, the San Diego Padres bullpen was the best in the National League. With the additions of Drew Pomeranz, Emilio Pagan, Pierce Johnson, and Tim Hill, expect more of the same in 2020. Accordingly, we want to target the early innings before any Padre relievers enter the ballgame. As long as they don’t get shutout through 3, your bet won’t be lost.

Over 5 runs, First 5 Innings (+115)

This time, we’re focusing on the two teams’ combined total. In 2019, teams with a DH scored about 5 runs per 9 innings–a rate that would achieve our over. Plus, even with their strikeout prowess, both pitchers have their flaws, specifically in the home run department. Had they qualified, both Lamet and Ray would’ve been in the bottom 15 in homers allowed per 9 innings. This leaves a strong chance for a big inning or two before the bullpens arrive.