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MLB Betting Preview: ARI D-backs at TX Rangers (7/29/20)

Two interleague opponents wrap up their quick two-game set as the Arizona Diamondbacks face the Texas Rangers. Last night, it was the D-Backs getting the upper hand, winning the game by a score of 4-1. Arizona pitcher Merrill Kelly was fantastic last night, taking a no-hitter into the bottom of the seventh inning.  

The pitching matchup in this one is another dandy, as we’ll see the lefty Madison Bumgarner toe the rubber for Arizona while the righty Lance Lynn goes for Texas. Both of these guys have had plenty of success at the MLB level, and it will be exciting to watch these guys do battle in the afternoon. Especially, considering both teams’ offenses have struggled to start the season.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers

Globe Life Field – Arlington, TX – 4:05 p.m. EST (Watch: MLB Extra Innings)

Starting Pitchers:

ARZ: Madison Bumgarner – L (0-1, 4.76 ERA/1.24 WHIP this season)
TEX: Lance Lynn – R (1-0, 0.00 ERA/1.00 WHIP this season)

Odds & Betting lines (According to DraftKings Sportsbook)

Total: 8 runs | Over: -115 | Under: -106
ARZ | Moneyline: +100 | Run Line (+1.5): -205
TEX | Moneyline: -120| Run Line (-1.5): +165

Injury List

ARZ: none
TEX: Joely Rodriguez -RP (IL)

Interesting Stats

Lynn’s Home Cooking

Lynn pitched six innings of shutout ball to go along with nine strikeouts en route to getting the win in the season opener. It might be a new stadium in Arlington, but the home cooking is just the same. Last season, Lynn posted a 10-1 record and 3.50 ERA in 16 home starts. He is also 6-1 with a 3.22 ERA in 13 career starts against the D-Backs.

MadBum Looks to Rebound

The Arizona debut started out well but did not go as planned for a MadBum, as he allowed four hits, three walks and three runs over 5 2/3 innings en route to taking the loss. It’s no secret that Bumgarner’s best days are behind him, so we’ll see what he has in store for the Rangers today.

D-Backs BvP vs. Lynn

There are four Arizona players who have at least a .349 weighted on-base average against Lynn lifetime – Starling Marte, Jake Lamb, David Peralta, Ketel Marte – all of whom are expected to be in the lineup today.

Betting Picks

Diamondbacks Moneyline (+100)

It is certainly worth noting that the D-Backs have the largest moneyline increase since the open for any team on the entire MLB calendar today; in the same breath, the Rangers also had the largest implied run total (IRT) deficit (-0.5) on the day. This Texas team has been absolutely pitiful on offense to start the season, ranking dead-last in weighted on-base average (.231). This is a game that probably gets decided late, with Arizona getting the upper hand.

Under 8 runs (-120)

According to the numbers, we’re going to see a low-scoring game today; the IRT deficit and total drop from 8.5 to 8. Furthermore, it gives us the indication that MadBum is just going to pitch well. After all, he did for five innings of his season debut. I’m not worried about Lynn getting blown up at all; if he gives up any runs, it should be two or three.