MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday (9/11/19)

Read our top baseball betting picks from today’s games. We study the odds, the teams, and the players to give you our recommended betting picks to beat the bookie!

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies – Braves (1.5-run line)

Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets – Over 8.5

Washington Nationals at Minnesota Twins – Over 10

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies

Betting Pick: Braves +112 (1.5-run line) | Bet with PointsBet Now | Get up to $1000 in Risk Free Bets

Time: 7:05 p.m. EST

Starting Pitchers

ATL: Dallas Keuchel – L (7-5, 3.47 ERA/1.32 WHIP)

PHI: Zach Eflin – R (8-11, 4.31 ERA/1.34 WHIP)

The Phillies got back on track with a win in last night’s game, which was crucial as the Cubs lost. This now brings the two games out of the last National League Wild Card spot. However, Philly can’t afford to drop any more games with Chicago’s easy schedule on deck. Meanwhile, the Braves are only four games behind the Dodgers for the top spot in the NL, so there’s still plenty of motivation for them to do well.

Odds Analysis: Braves at Phillies

The line or total didn’t move one bit early after the open. The Braves took 75 percent of the public bets while the total going under got 69 percent of the public bets. None of this is particularly shocking, considering the two starting pitchers in this matchup.

Braves Betting Form

Dallas Keuchel has tossed five straight quality starts (all ATL wins), crucially as the Braves head down the stretch. His only outing against the Phillies this season went well, allowing only two runs over seven innings, but the lefty did take the loss in that one. If Keuchel does have a knock, though, it’s his performance on the road – 3-4 record/5.26 ERA in seven starts, compared to 4-1 with a 2.10 ERA in eight starts at home.

Phillies Betting Form

Zach Eflin has pitched well in his last three starts, albeit against lesser competition. That won’t help him tonight against a Braves team that has absolutely roped him this season for 14 hits (4 HR, .467 opposing batting average) and 17 runs (12 earned) in only 5 2/3 innings. Eflin’s problems have mostly come against left-handed batters, and the Braves have plenty of pop from that side of the plate. In fact, lefties are crushing Eflin this season to the tune of a .529 slugging percentage and .876 OPS.

Betting Pick: Braves +112 (1.5-run line)

Six of the seven Braves’ wins against the Phillies have come by two runs or more, including each of the last five. Not to mention, Atlanta has won six of its last nine meetings with Philly.

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Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets

Betting Pick: Over 8.5 | Bet with Resorts Now | Get a $250 First Deposit Bonus

Time: 7:10 p.m. EST

Starting Pitchers

ARZ: Robbie Ray – L (12-7, 4.03 ERA/1.32 WHIP)

NYM: Steven Matz – L (9-8, 4.00 ERA/1.32 WHIP)

These two teams are still holding on for dear life in the NL Wild Card race. If the first two games of this series are any indication, it doesn’t look like either one will back down. While each of the first two games were low-scoring affairs, we could see a totally different type of game tonight.

Odds Analysis: Diamondbacks at Mets

Right after the open, the total on this game rose from 8.0 up to 8.5 with the overwhelming majority of bets taken on the over. It does make sense, considering each of these teams rank near the top of most advanced metrics against left-handed pitching. The D-Backs moneyline also rose a considerable amount while the Mets came down.

Diamondbacks Betting Form

Robbie Ray has run into some trouble over the last few starts, and a blister on his left middle finger could’ve been the culprit. Nonetheless, he’ll be running into a Mets team that ranks sixth in MLB with a .337 weighted-on base average against left-handed pitching. New York has a predominantly right-handed lineup that can give Ray plenty of trouble, as that side of the plate has 22 of its 25 homers against him.

Mets Betting Form

Steven Matz has an excellent 6-1 record and 2.11 ERA in 14 appearances (12 starts) at Citi Field this season. However, he’ll be running into a D-Backs team that ranks third in MLB with a .355 weighted on-base average and .222 ISO (power metric). Not to mention, Matz got crushed by the D-Backs in Arizona back on June 2 for eight hits (two homers), two walks and five runs over six innings.

Betting Tip: Over 8.5

Given what we know about the offenses against left-handed pitching, these 7-10 mph winds blowing out to centerfield are the cherry on top. After two games of chipping away at one another, the D-Backs and Mets are certainly ready to slug it out.

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Washington Nationals at Minnesota Twins

Betting Pick: Over 10 | Bet with BetMGM Now | Risk-Free Bet up to $500

Time: 7:40 p.m. EST

Starting Pitchers

WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (16-6, 3.50 ERA/1.05 WHIP)

MIN: Martin Perez – L (10-6, 4.75 ERA/1.46 WHIP)

Both of these teams are on their way to the playoffs, so it’s just all about positioning at this point. On paper, it looks like we’ve got a huge mismatch of starting pitchers, but we could very well be looking at a close game by the end of the night.

Odds Analysis: Nationals at Twins

The line or total didn’t move much after the open, but the one thing that jumped out was the number of bets taken on the Nationals. With the matchup of starting pitchers heavily slanted in Washington’s favor, that’s who has taken 79 percent of the public bets off the bat. It’s worth noting that Minnesota is 31-12 as an underdog this season.

Nationals Betting Form

Stephen Strasburg will have his hands full against one of the best offenses in baseball. At the beginning of August Strasburg was getting roped with great regularity, but some of his more recent starts have been better. Judging by the game total, it’s a decent bet to believe we’ll see more of that happening against such a potent offense.

Twins Betting Form

Martin Perez has pitched well lately, but the Nationals do own some of the best-advanced metrics in baseball against lefties. Perez has succeeded against teams with poor metrics against southpaws, so we can certainly attribute the good times to that. This time around, however, he won’t be so lucky. The Nationals won’t get shut down in consecutive games too often, so we should all expect them to come back strong against Perez.

Betting Pick: Over 10

It’s a crazy stat, but since the All-Star break, seven of Strasburg’s nine starts have had the game total end in double-digits. Whereas, six of Perez’s 10 starts since the break has done the same. Most of the runs are probably coming off Nationals’ bats tonight, and it wouldn’t be too surprising to see some from the opposition either.

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Al Walsh
Al Walsh Chief Sports Writer