After a two series victories in San Diego, the Padres now look to win their first road series against the Diamondbacks. In hopes of doing so, the Friars will send out electric righty Dinelson Lamet, who appears on the verge of a breakout. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks will send out Korean Baseball Organization veteran Merrill Kelly.
With that in mind, let’s take a betting-based view at the matchup.
San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ – 9:40 PM ET
Game Info/Starting Pitchers:
SDP: Dinelson Lamet – R (2020: 1.61 ERA, 2.63 FIP, 0.7 WAR, 22.1 IP)
ARI: Merrill Kelly – R (Last Season: 4.42 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 2.0 WAR, 183.1 IP)
Odds & Betting lines (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: 9 | Over: -103 | Under: -118
SDP | Moneyline: -139 | Run Line (-1.5): +120
ARI | Moneyline: +120 | Run Line (+1.5): -141
In his first two Major League seasons, Lamet flashed a lively, effective fastball in the neighborhood of 95-96 mph. In fact, many scouts have long considered the heater his best pitch.
This season, however, the Dominican import has taken things to a whole new level. Through 4 starts, Lamet’s fastball has averaged 97.2 mph, which is fourth-best in baseball.
Even if you’re talking about a guy who throws 90 mph, a 1.5 mph improvement can completely revolutionize their game. When it comes to a guy who already threw gas, however, the results can be explosive.
Blown Leads Incoming?
After solid 2019 campaigns, both squads’ bullpen units have stumbled out of the gate in 2020. Through 70+ innings, the Diamondbacks and Padres bullpens have 0 and -0.2 WAR, respectively. Surprisingly, this comes after a year in which they accrued 2.9 and 5.5–both in the top half of the league. Small sample caveats apply here, but it may be a signal that we can’t expect elite bullpen performance in 2020 from these clubs.
SDP -1 (-110)
Although it’s plausible that the Padres bullpen could blow things, Lamet should leave them in good hands for a win. At -1, the Padres would have to lose by 2 or more for this to fail. If you assume the Padres as slight favorites (about 53%), they’re a good bet to cash about 60% of the time, giving us plenty of cushion. If Lamet is still throwing 97 with good control, a Padres win should be relatively no problem at all.