MLB Betting Preview: PHI Phillies at ATL Braves (8/21/20)

To kick off their second series of the year, the Phillies and Braves will play one of three consecutive games at Truist Park tonight. This opening game will be a battle of team aces as the red-hot Aaron Nola challenges the impressive Max Fried.

With that in mind, has this matchup produced any betting lines of value? Let’s take a look.

Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

Truist Park, Atlanta, GA – 7:10 PM ET

Game Info/Starting Pitchers:

PHI: Aaron Nola – R (2020: 2.05 ERA, 2.30 FIP, 1.1 WAR, 26.1 IP)
ATL: Max Fried – L (2020: 1.24 ERA, 2.38 FIP, 1.1 WAR, 29 IP)

Odds & Betting lines (BetMGM)

Total: 8 | Over: -110 | Under: -110
PHI| Moneyline: -105 | Run Line (-1.5): +162
ATL| Moneyline: +100 | Run Line (+1.5): -167

Game Notes

A Worthy Opponent

Everyone in the league respects Aaron Nola’s game, and for good reason. After all, the LSU alum has posted a sparkling 3.44 ERA and 18.3 WAR in his first 800 innings.

At the same time, however, Max Fried is capable of matching–and even out-dueling–the finesse righty.

In his brief career, Fried has posted a comparable 3.54 ERA in his first 250 innings. Due to less innings, his WAR total (4.6) isn’t nearly as high, but his WAR-per-inning is close.

Nola remains the clear ‘king on the bump’ for tonight’s meeting, but don’t be surprised if Fried matches him out-for-out.

Betting Picks

ATL Moneyline (+100)

Considering tonight’s closer-than-expected pitching matchup, the game lines up well for the underdog Braves. It may be without star players Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies, but it will be with star prospect Christian Pache, a better bullpen, and home field advantage.

Overall, I believe it is Atlanta that deserves the slight betting advantage tonight, so plus odds are great value here.