NBA Picks Today – Free Expert Picks (4/5/2021)

Monday’s seven-game NBA slate kicks off what should be another fantastic week of basketball. With the NCAA Men’s Basketball National Championship tipping off tonight, only one game makes the national-TV selection: New York Knicks at Brooklyn Nets. Unfortunately, that game did not make my selection of ones to write about, but there are plenty of others to discuss.

On Friday, I went a perfect 3-0 to bring my season-long record to 80-46-2 ATS (63.5%). Here are four more free NBA picks to get things going in the right direction to start the week.

Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors (-4.5) – Total: 227.5

WSH: normal rest
TOR: 2 days rest, front-end b2b (vs LAL tomorrow)

We have one big trend that favors the Raptors in this matchup. However, it is true that some trends were meant to be broken.

While it is true that the Raptors have won nine straight (6-3 ATS) against the Wizards, there are some very worrisome numbers against them. In some oddity, the Wizards have done well with the rest disadvantage (10-5 ATS), but the Raptors are 2-7 ATS on extended rest (2+ days). In addition, Toronto is 11-17 ATS as the favorite.

I’m also still not convinced the Raptors are out of their current funk. While they did beat the Warriors by 53 in their last game, the Raptors did lose eight of their previous nine. Golden State was on the back end of a B2B set, so perhaps that win wasn’t as impressive for Toronto.

Betting Pick: Wizards (+4.5)

Utah Jazz (-4.5) at Dallas Mavericks – Total: 224

UTA: 3 games in 4 days, 4 in 6
DAL: 3 games in 4 days, 4 in 6

This is a matchup that Utah has dominated in recent memory, going 5-1 SU/4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. In addition, the Jazz has a fantastic 29-17 ATS mark as the favorite this season. Dallas has had struggles in its home building, going 8-13 ATS there this season

Betting Pick: Jazz (-4.5)

Cleveland Cavaliers at San Antonio Spurs (-9) – Total: 216.5

CLE: normal rest
SA: 4 games in 6 days

The Spurs -9 seems like a clinically insane spread, but I have to go with it here. While the Cavaliers have been better of late, it’s the road where most of their troubles come from. In fact, they are a dreadful 7-18 ATS away from Cleveland this season. San Antonio, meanwhile, has feasted upon Eastern Conference teams this season, going 12-5 ATS. In addition, the Spurs are 7-2 SU/6-3 ATS against the Cavs in the last nine meetings.

Betting Pick: Spurs (-9)

Phoenix Suns (-14) at Houston Rockets – Total: 221

PHX: 2 days rest
HOU: back-end b2b (vs NOR yesterday), 3 games in 4 days, 4 in 6

On the surface, this should be an easy enough win for the Suns. The question, however, is whether they can do it by about 15 points. I believe they do.

Looking at the season-long numbers, Phoenix is superior in every scenario against Houston in this matchup. Let’s look at the matchup:

PHX: 15-7 ATS on the road | HOU: 4-20 ATS at home
PHX: 8-5 ATS w/ the rest advantage | HOU: 3-8 ATS w/ the rest disadvantage
PHX: 26-14 ATS as the favorite | HOU: 12-23 ATS as underdog (2-13 ATS as home underdog)

It’s clear that the Suns will win, and I hope those trends gave you peace of mind that it’ll be a convincing win.

Betting Pick: Suns (-14)

Al Walsh
Al Walsh Chief Sports Writer