Expert ATS and ML Picks For Divisional Round Weekend

01/23/2022


Expert ATS and ML Picks For Divisional Round Weekend

We are down to eight teams left in the NFL Playoffs, so that means it's time to kick off the Divisional Round. This weekend, we'll have two matchups on Saturday (Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans & San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers) and two on Sunday (Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers & Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs). 

In this article, I will give you my four best bets for the NFL Playoffs. Let's take a look and see where the action is: 

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (-3.5) – TOTAL: 47.5

Saturday at 4:30 pm ET on CBS

NFL Playoffs Pick: Tennessee Titans -3.5 (-110)

Earlier in the week, I had a slight lean on the Bengals. However, that feeling has now dissipated after some careful thoughts. I already knew about the return of Titans RB Derrick Henry, and how that will positively impact the Titans’ chances of winning; it was the betting landscape changing my mind.

We’re starting to see tons of money flooding in on the Titans this week, which is certainly surprising since the Bengals have gained a lot of backers over the course of the last few weeks. In fact, Tennessee is getting more money (84%) this week than any other team in the Divisional Round! To me, that speaks volumes, and it just took me a little while to get there.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-5.5) – TOTAL: 47

Saturday at 8:15 pm ET on FOX

NFL Playoffs Pick: Green Bay Packers -5.5 (-110)

Earlier in the week, I leaned on the side of the Packers – and now they’re going to be my biggest bet of the entire playoffs! 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo is dealing with shoulder and finger issues, in addition to having a subpar past in cold temperatures; it will be right around 10 degrees all night on Saturday in Green Bay.

Some will make note of the fact that the Packers mailed in their final regular-season game and then had the opening-round bye week. We have seen teams opt to take the two-week break and haven’t fared all that well. However, this Packers squad is a veteran bunch, so that time off did a lot better than anything. These guys have all been around Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur for a while now, giving them plenty of familiarities to make it work in this scenario.

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) – TOTAL: 48

Sunday at 3 pm ET on NBC

NFL Playoffs Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 (-110)

Bucs OL Ryan Jensen and Tristan Wirfs both made it out onto the practice field finally on Friday, at least giving them a chance to play on Sunday afternoon. Even if they are able to play, you have to wonder how effective they’ll be against one of the best front-sevens in football.

While I do think those absences/limited availabilities could play a factor, the team to get it done under those circumstances is the Buccaneers. Tom Brady can motivate almost anyone to do anything, so those guys filling in on the offensive line will have the power of TB12 behind them. Not to mention, this Buccaneers defense is pretty damn good themselves, as evidenced by the performance they displayed on this same field last year. You know, the Super Bowl win.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) – TOTAL: 54

Sunday at 6:30 pm ET on CBS

NFL Playoffs Pick: Buffalo Bills ML (+110)

I will stick to my initial play from earlier in the week and roll with the Bills. I see way too much potential in Josh Allen and the Bills offense right now to let this opportunity slip away. Buffalo just dismantled the New England Patriots, a team that has been a monkey on its backs for a while. So, how about knocking off another foe in the process?

Looking at the betting landscape, we’re seeing 61% of the bets made going towards the Chiefs while 80% of the money is on the Bills. We can also see some evidence of future Bills' success as this line is moving closer to a pick em’ and might even get there before kickoff.

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