2021 AFC East Odds Analysis – Do The Bills Have It Sewn Up?

The Bills leads the 2021 AFC East odds at -155.
The Bills have the shortest AFC East odds at -155.
AFC East TeamsOdds by Caesars Sportsbook
Buffalo Bills-155
Miami Dolphins+340
New England Patriots+350
New York Jets+2200

The AFC East was once dominated by the New England Patriots for almost two decades. Then, Tom Brady took his talents to the West coast of Florida and won a Super Bowl with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In that one year, the Buffalo Bills emerged as the team to beat, with the Miami Dolphins looking to take the next step this season.

In this article, I will evaluate the AFC East odds and choose a winner of the division. At this point, I’ve got a favorite in mind, and it’ll be hard to move me off it. Without further ado, let’s take a look at each team.

Buffalo Bills Odds to Win AFC East (-155)


The Bills were one win away from reaching last season’s Super Bowl. Motivation will be the keyword of the season, knowing they have a talented bunch. The big challenge won’t come inside the division, though, rather coming with another potential rematch against the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.

QB Josh Allen is on a lot of peoples’ radars to win the MVP award. In a recent article, I highlighted his odds against other QBs in the same range. His main target, WR Stefon Diggs, leads a pass-catching group that added WR Emmanuel Sanders. There is also hope that TE Dawson Knox can emerge as a bigger red-zone threat.

Buffalo and its fast, high-flying defense are a great unit to go along with the rawkus crowd. Even though we’re not getting plus-money odds, I still believe this is the best play on the board. The Bills’ QB situation is at a top-notch level, and the defense can win games on its own. That was certainly the case. in the Bills’ Divisional Round win against the Ravens. While Miami and New England have a lot to be hopeful about in the future, those signal-callers aren’t a “sure thing.”

Miami Dolphins Odds to Win AFC East (+340)


I know the Dolphins fans will come after me for saying QB Tua Tagovialoa isn’t a “sure thing,” but I’ve got my reasons. Luckily, the playmakers around Tagovialoa will be able to mask some of the 50-50 balls that he likes to throw so often. The running back position is intriguing too, as three different players (Myles Gaskin, Malcolm Brown, Salvon Ahmed) all have a chance to make an impact.

Miami may have its most talented collection of players in quite some time. This is a team that Dan Marino could have won a Super Bowl with! The Dolphins took WR Jaylen Waddle out of Alabama with the No. 6 pick in year’s draft. Taking him was probably a nice little tip of the cap to Tua from the Miami front office.

The Dolphins odds to win the AFC East are at +340, which is a lot higher than anticipated. Perhaps, the oddsmakers see that their defense isn’t something opposing offenses shouldn’t be particularly concerned with. Miami did just miss the playoffs last season, but I do believe it’ll make the dance this time around – just not as the division winner.

New England Patriots Odds To Win AFC East (+350)


Now one year removed from the Tom Brady era, the Patriots will look to forge a new path of their own. The team has a QB competition going between Cam Newton and Mac Jones. Both guys have played well during the preseason, but you’d have to imagine Newton gets the starting nod as a veteran. Head coach Bill Belichick does give New England a clear advantage of the mind in most games.

In 2020, no other team in the NFL had more players opt out before Week 1 than the Patriots. The defensive unit was hit the hardest, but the overall theme at Foxborough last season was “average,” and that’s not what people are used to around there. I don’t know that New England will have enough to beat Buffalo out for the division, but it’ll sure as hell be close.

New York Jets Odds to Win AFC East (+2200)


I really do like Jets first-year head coach Robert Saleh, but he’ll certainly have his work cut out for him. New York is heading for yet another season of disaster, with rookie QB Zach Wilson at the helm. He will probably have some success later in his NFL career, but a depleted roster and no experience isn’t giving the sense of much optimism.

If you’d like to make $220 on a $10 bet, I suppose the Jets could be a fun pick to win the AFC East. However, I wouldn’t put too much on a team that has won a total of 23 games over the last five years. It has to change at some point, right?

Expert Pick To Win The AFC East 2021


Bills (-150)

These last two seasons have been a preview of things to come for Allen and the Bills. In each of those seasons, there has been an incremental step forward. Now, all that’s left for Buffalo is to win the AFC Championship Game and go to the Super Bowl. The Bills have a very tough start to the season, but things get a lot easier after the team’s bye in Week 7. Look for them to make a late-season push and ride that to the division title.

Al Walsh
Al Walsh Chief Sports Writer