The Week 3 schedule had some very exciting matchups on it, and this one with the Bears at the Redskins has potential to be just as great. Our betting pick is the Bears to cover the spread. Let’s dive into the facts and figure out why.
Chicago Bears (-5.5) at Washington Redskins – O/U: 41.5
Time: Monday 23rd September 8:20 p.m. EST
Betting Pick: Bears -5.5
Odds Analysis: Bears at Redskins
The Bears opened as -4.5 favorites but have since risen to -5.5. It’s those same Bears that are getting 54 percent of public bets/48 percent of money wagered. In addition, the total dropped from 42.5 to 41.5. We’re seeing 63 percent of public bets/46 percent of money wagered coming in on the under.
Bears Betting Form
The Bears are lucky to be 1-1 after their improbable win in Denver last week. They got plenty of help from the referees and lady luck in that game, but they really shouldn’t need it tonight against the Redskins, whose defense has struggled mightily out of the gate. QB Mitch Trubisky needs a big game to silence the haters, and he should be able to get back on the good foot. After all, Washington has allowed a total of 63 points in the first two games and will be missing a couple of corners in its secondary.
Chicago’s defense will ultimately be the difference-makers in this matchup. This is one of the best units in football, so look for them to create havoc in the backfield all night. Perhaps, Khalil Mack & Co. will create a few turnovers to put Trubisky and the offense in favorable field position.
Redskins Betting Form
The Redskins rank 29th in rushing for DVOA – a Football Outsiders’ metric that quantifies effectiveness. That’s not going to work against a Bears’ defense that is allowing only 3.1 yards per carry through two games this season. RBs Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson are the ones Washington will likely lean on. Thompson’s chance-of-pace style as a receiving back could be more useful here, considering that could keep Chicago’s defense off balance.
In reality, though, it’s going to be hard to move the ball at all. The Bears’ defense is looking as good as ever and could really put this game out of reach.
Betting Pick: Bears -5.5
Chicago has too many talented pieces on both sides of the ball and ultimately, that’ll be the difference. Look for the Bears to force the Redskins into a few mistakes that change field position and get them short fields to work with.
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