NFL Week 4 Betting Lines, Picks & Tips

In this article, we’ll provide you with our top football betting picks and advice for the Week 4 NFL football slate. We study the odds, betting lines, teams, and players to give you our recommended betting picks to beat the bookie!

New England Patriots (-7) at Buffalo Bills – O/U: 42.5

Betting Pick: Under 42.5

Sunday, September 29th, 2019 – 1:00 p.m. EST

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Week 4 of the NFL schedule has quite a few solid matchups on the docket that make for several interesting betting opportunities. One of our top betting picks is for the Buffalo Bills to cover the spread against the New England Patriots. Let’s dive into the facts and figures below, to learn why this is our top betting tip.

Odds Analysis: Patriots at Bills

The Patriots’ backers are out in full-force once again, with 80 percent of public bets/72 percent of money wagered in their favor on the spread, which opened at -6.5 but is now at -7. In addition, the total dropped from 44 to 42.5, which speaks to where bettors are placing their money. 69 percent of public bets/88 percent of money wagered is going on the under.

Patriots Betting Form

Instead of saying “Tom… Freaking… Brady,” we should probably start saying “Patriots… Freaking… Defense.” Through the first three games, this unit has allowed a grand total of three points. Sure, the team had 14 points scored against them last week, but both of those touchdowns were scored by the Jets’ defense.

While the Patriots and Brady didn’t cover that massive three-touchdown spread last week, this is still a team humming right along their usual ways. This week’s matchup does pose a brand new set of challenges, heading into a hostile #BillsMafia warzone atmosphere. Typically, facing the Bills means playing a nasty grind-it-out game on the ground, and this time will be no different.

We’re not sure if WR Julian Edelman will suit up just yet, and that could cause a huge change-of-pace for one of the most potent offenses in football. Fellow WR Josh Gordon is also banged up but is expected to go. With those two ailing, look for the defending champs to take to the ground a bit more, meaning the RB-trio of Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead could get busy.

Bills Betting Form

It’ll certainly be tough for the Bills to get the ball moving on the ground, considering the Patriots haven’t allowed a run of more than 10 yards all season! Are you kidding me? In comparison, the Dolphins have already allowed 20 runs of 10+ yards through three games.

Point being, that’s how Buffalo rolls – on the ground. Look for New England to cut their legs off early (pun intended) and not let ground-game get going. Bills QB Josh Allen has been much improved moving the ball through the air in his second season, but that’ll come with great resistance against a Patriots’ secondary that has only allowed 186.7 per game.

The Bills have looked solid through three weeks, but keep in mind that the three wins have come against the likes of the Jets, Giants, and Bengals. Let’s not go planning the parade route just yet.

Betting Pick: Under 42.5

This is going to be a nasty game with plenty of big hits and stoppages in the trenches. Both defenses are on top of their game, and we’ll see that play out more than anything. For quite an elite matchup, we probably won’t see a ton of glitz and glam.

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Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) at Detroit Lions – O/U: 54.5

Sunday, September 29th, 2019 – 1:00 p.m. EST

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Betting Pick: Over 54.5

Week 4 sees the Kansas City Chiefs head up to Michigan to take on the Detroit Lions. Our top betting pick for this match-up is for the total going over in the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions game. Let’s dive into the facts and figures below, to learn why this is our top betting tip.

Odds Analysis: Chiefs at Lions

Bettors are chiming in heavily on two aspects of this game. Chiefs’ bettors made their case loud and clear, with 85 percent of public bets/67 percent of money wagered on them to cover the spread. Additionally, the over has gotten tons of love with 65 percent of public bets/88 percent of money wagered going to the over.

Chiefs Betting Form

This Chiefs’ offense is something magical, putting up a total of 101 points through the first three games – and that’s come in matchups going against two of the better defenses in football. The Lions have already allowed 287 yards per game through the air in their first three matchups. So look for QB Patrick Mahomes to take advantage of that. In comparison, the Chiefs are putting up just under 400 yards per game through the air.

There’s no way that the Lions will stop this KC aerial attack – it just can’t happen. Mahomes has too many weapons at his disposal for that to take place and we’ll see that same type of effectiveness through the air from the other side.

Lions Betting Form

While the Chiefs have their own high-flying attack, we can’t shrug off how effective QB Matt Stafford and his full complement of WRs have been. In fact, Stafford is spreading the ball around to multiple different receivers, leading each of them to some of Pro Football Focus’ highest grades through the first three games.

Detroit’s new sense of urgency on offense works in favor of the total going over 54.5 points. Prior to this season, the Lions ranked near the bottom of the NFL in neutralized pace-of-play. However, in 2019, they have climbed to about league-average and the matchup dictates that we’ll see bigger plays on Sunday.

Betting Pick: Over 54.5

In conclusion, both sides have well-balanced passing attacks. We’re probably not going to see a ton of running plays, and that works well for us bettors of the over on the clock. If for some reason, we see incomplete passes, that will stop the clock. We’re not going to see that, though, and rather more vertical passing plays that move the ball down the field quickly.

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Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) – O/U: 45

Sunday, September 29th, 2019 – 1:00 p.m. EST

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Betting Pick: Ravens -6.5

Our final match-up sees the Browns take on the Ravens at the M&T Bank Stadium. Our top betting pick is for the Baltimore Ravens to cover the spread against the Cleveland Browns. Let’s dive into the facts and figures below, to learn why this is our top betting tip.

Odds Analysis: Browns at Ravens

The Ravens’ bettors have spoken early, with 58 percent of public bets/61 percent of money wagered early on – Baltimore opened as a -6 favorite but jumped slightly to -6.5. In addition, things are very close to 50/50 on the total – 53 percent of public bets/53 percent of money wagered is on the total going over.

Browns Betting Form

QB Baker Mayfield has a lot of hype to live up to, and the Ravens know all about it. Baltimore head coach Jim Harbaugh actually came out and said this week that he retracts mentioning Cleveland as a solid team.

With all that being said, the Ravens are a traditional mainstay here in the AFC North. You have to believe they’ll be ready to go for this game and bring the house at Mayfield in this game. The Browns have a lot of holes to fix, and it seems like it may be too much to tackle (pun intended).

Ravens Betting Form

QB Lamar Jackson has been phenomenal to start the 2019 season, and a big performance would go a long way in adding on to his MVP campaign. One big thing that stands out for the Ravens’ success is that the Browns just can’t tackle people. That sounds like a general statement, but they can’t – they were the worst tackling last season and things just haven’t gotten better.

The rushing defense for both sides will certainly be a factor – the Ravens are allowing a solid 60.3 yards per game on the ground while the Browns are surrendering 102. Baltimore thrives on pounding the rock and that’ll ultimately be the difference.

Betting Pick: Ravens -6.5

With everything being said, the Ravens are the more well-rounded football team. Sure, the Browns have a lot of questions to answer, but we’re all about results here. Look for Baltimore to take it to the ground early and make sure that Cleveland doesn’t forget that in its second meeting later this season.

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Al Walsh
Al Walsh Chief Sports Writer