We’ll finally put a lid on Week 8 of the NFL season when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to face the New York Giants on Monday Night Football. The two teams are heading in totally opposite directions, as the Bucs (+350) are currently the NFC favorite and the Giants (+15000) literally have the worst odds to win the conference.
It has been a windy day (20 mph winds) in the New Jersey/New York metropolitan area today, but things are expected to remain at about 40 degrees during gametime with slight 10 mph winds. Nevertheless, the Bucs are massive 12.5-point favorites and should win this game easily.
In this article, I will identify the best value in player props this evening.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants
Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST | Watch: ESPN
MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, NJ
|TB||Spread: -12.5||Moneyline: -670|
|NYG||Spread: +12.5||Moneyline: +510|
Best Sack Props
Ndamukong Suh – Over 0.5 Sacks (+160)
Jason Pierre-Paul – Over 0.5 Sacks (-143)
Shaquil Barrett – Over 0.5 Sacks (-148)
It is nearly impossible to run the football, especially with Devonta Freeman out due to injury. That leaves it all in the hands of Wayne Gallman and Dion Lewis… gross. In addition, the Giants have the worst-ranked run blocking grade in the entire NFL.
Tampa Bay already ranks first in yards allowed per carry and second in DVOA run defense. Not to mention, the pass defense is pretty damn good as well – first in DVOA pass defense and ninth in yards allowed per pass attempt.
All in all, I think this leads up to a ton of pressure coming Daniel Jones’ way with the threat of the run is all but non-existent. Look for the Bucs to have a huge night getting to the QB all night long. Obviously, Suh would be the best value to get here at +160 with SugarHouse but the other players’ odds back up my point that numerous Bucs’ sacks will be on the stat sheet tonight.
Wayne Gallman – Over 2.5 Receptions (+110)
I already put my hard-earned money on this one…
This may actually be free money… on top of a little bit of free money, considering the +110 odds. I just talked about all of the optimism for the Bucs’ massive mismatch for their defensive line against the Giants’ offensive line. This will likely lead to plenty of targets for the Giants starting RB.
After Freeman got injured last week, Gallman stepped in and caught all five of his targets against a Philadelphia Eagles team that also has a “stop the run first” mentality. Looking at Tampa Bay’s opponents this season, they are all basically forced into targeting RBs constantly. Just take a look for yourself:
It’ll be a perfect scenario of Gallman snap percentage and the Bucs leading throughout that’ll give this prop bet the attention it deserves. William Hill is offering the best odds at -125.
Scott Miller – Over 3.5 Receptions (-103)
If you’re playing the single-game DFS format, Miller could be a nicer option in terms of sneakiness. For one, everyone will be drifting towards Mike Evans (especially with Chris Godwin missing tonight’s game) as the marquee name that is a “must have.” That might not be the best move, considering Evans will lock horns with the only player worth mentioning on the Giants’ defense, CB James Bradberry.
Miller is set to have another big night due to the above circumstances, but let’s not forget that Tom Brady historically loves his slot WRs. In four of the six games this season, Miller already has five targets or more and grabbed at least five catches in three of those games. Again, William Hill are offering the best odds here at -115.