We’ll get a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship Game to kick off Week 9 of the NFL season as the Green Bay Packers travel on a short week to face the San Francisco 49ers. Both teams are coming off of an embarrassing loss, so look for each of them to be on top of their respective games.
The Packers are 7-point underdogs, even with RBs Aaron Jones possibly not suiting up and Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillion on the COVID-19 list. Last season, it was the 49ers getting the upper hand twice (once in the regular season, once in the playoffs) by an aggregate score of 74-28. San Francisco is feeling the hurt too; in addition to losing numerous key players earlier this season, it lost QB Jimmy Garoppolo and TE George Kittle for multiple weeks in that last game at Seattle.
In this article, I will evaluate the best value in the player prop wagers. As usual, the odds in this article come to us from either Bet365, SugarHouse Sportsbook or William Hill.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
Thursday, November 5, 2020 | 8:20 p.m. EST | Watch: NFL Network
Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
|GB||Spread: -7||Moneyline: -300|
|SF||Spread: +7||Moneyline: +250|
Davante Adams – Over 7.5 Receptions (-120) | Over 88.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
We need to put up a little bit of extra money to get there, but Adams has a nice path to success in this matchup. For starters, the lack of healthy RBs for the Packers will turn them loose through the air. Besides a three-target game back in Week 2, Adams has already seen targets of 17 | 10 | 16 | 12 | in those other four games.
It is interesting to note that only two WRs (DK Metcalf, Robert Woods) have been targeted a double-digit number of times – Cooper Kupp saw nine. However, we can’t place Adams in a category with anyone else. In three career games (including playoffs) against the 49ers, he has a combined 26 catches on 39 targets for 175 and 313 yards and 3 TDs.
JaMychal Hasty – Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Tevin Coleman – Over 29.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The Packers are coming off a loss in which they allowed a season-high 173 rushing yards to the Vikings, who actually totaled another 134 yards against them on the ground in Week 1. If everything stays according to plan, the 49ers will try and run the football against a Green Bay team that has allowed at least 78 rushing yards in every game this season – four of them going for 100+ rushing yards.
While the 49ers are down a couple of studs in RBs Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson, they have very capable backups in Coleman and Hasty. That combo only posted 49 rushing yards and a TD on 15 carries (3.3 yards per carry) last week against the Seattle Seahawks – a matchup they should have dominated.
Not to worry, though, the 49ers are the home team for this important matchup. That entitlement is a lot more important this week considering the Packers will have had to make the inconvenient trip from Green Bay to Santa Clara on only three full days of rest. Expect the Packers to have quite a bit of jetlag and Coleman/Hasty to benefit because of it.
First Scoring Play: San Francisco 49ers’ Touchdown (+255)
With the Packers going out West on a short week, I already said there should be some rust coming along with them. After all, they were just destroyed on the ground by Dalvin Cook and that will certainly take a toll on their bodies. Look for the 49ers to get the ball and score right away.
One factor of this game that many will overlook is Nick Mullens coming back into the lineup. Mullens is no slouch, leading the 49ers to a 2-1 record this season; in relief last week at Seattle, he went 18-for-25 with 238 passing yards and 2 TDs.