In Week 6 of the NFL season, we’re going to take a different approach with our prop bets. This time around, we’ll take a look at the best value of these prop bets by position, rather than going through particular games. In hopes of doing this, we’ll find the absolute best value on the board.
This is a big week of matchups for plenty of wide receivers around the league. In this article, I’ll take a look at the matchups for Allen Robinson of the Chicago Bears against the Carolina Panthers, Kenny Golladay of the Detroit Lions against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Jamison Crowder of the New York Jets against the Miami Dolphins.
All of the props in this article are brought to you by William Hill.
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST | Watch: FOX
Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, NC
Projected Weather: 70°F, Calm
WR To Watch: Allen Robinson (Chicago Bears)
Props to Watch: Literally everything… Receptions, Receiving Yards, TDs
I already have a piece of the Bears in prop bets with David Montgomery having a big day on the ground. But that does not mean that other guys can’t get in on the action.
Robinson ranks eighth in the NFL with 421 receiving yards and has seven big plays (20+ yards), which ranks third. On the surface, this matchup against the Panthers isn’t great through the air as they allow the third fewest yards per attempt (6.1) and rank 10th in DVOA.
Since making the switch to Foles at QB, Robinson has a team-high 32 targets while three other Bears are behind him at 17. In fact, the former Penn State standout has the most receiving yards (317), air yards (467) and targets (39) over the last three weeks. His direct matchup will be against Troy Pride Jr., who was allowing 12.7 yards per target this season.
Detroit Lions at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST | Watch: FOX
TIAA Bank Field – Jacksonville, FL
Projected Weather: 80°F, Calm
WR To Watch: Kenny Golladay (Detroit Lions)
Props to Watch: Receptions, TDs
The Jaguars own the NFL’s worst pass defense, allowing an average of 284.2 YPC and 8.7 yards per pass attempt. Historically in the Matt Stafford era, the Lions have been more successful throwing the football, and that’ll certainly be a point of emphasis in this matchup.
Unfortunately, these big passing games against Jacksonville had a lot of different players chipping in. Even more frustrating is that no Lions receiver has gone above 81 yards this season. However, it’s time for Detroit’s top WR to get busy in a plus-matchup.
Golladay has only played in two games this season but turned in two great performances – six catches on seven targets for 57 yards and a TD (@ARZ) and four catches on eight targets for 62 yards and a TD (vs. NO). Clearly, going for the TD prop would be the right move here.
More Expert Prop Bets
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST | Watch: CBS
Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
Projected Weather: 85°F, 60% Chance of Rain
WR To Watch: Jamison Crowder (New York Jets)
Props to Watch: Receptions, Receiving Yards
If we can count on a team to be in constant throwing situations, we can certainly put the Jets at the top of that list. Now that Le’Veon Bell is out of town, this team is at a great loss of talent on the offensive side of the ball and I’m just fine with that. Of course, this means it can be another big day for Crowder out of the slot.
This week’s matchup is a glorious one for Crowder, getting matched up against an unreliable defender in Nik Needham. The second-year backup has allowed already allowed 785 receiving yards and nine TDs on 87 targets over the course of his career. In fact, looking at the Dolphins schedule this season, all five of the opposing slot WRs have seen at least six targets.
Crowder has been limited to only three games this season, but those three have been everything that fantasy owners could have asked for:
Wk1 @ BUF: 8 rec, 13 targ, 116 rec yds, TD
Wk4 vs DEN: 7 rec, 10 targ, 104 rec yds
Wk5 vs ARZ: 8 rec, 10 targ, 116 rec yds, TD