Week 9 of the NFL season gives us our next chance to capitalize of some of the best QB props in the market. Last week was filled with bad weather and wind, but there are currently no weather concerns in any of the games this time around.
Here are the matchups that have some valuable numbers to look at:
- Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) vs. Seattle Seahawks
- Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Tom Brady (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) vs. New Orleans Saints
In this article, I will identify the best value in the player prop bets market for Week 9 of the NFL season according to SugarHouse Sportsbook odds. If any price is appealing be sure to use to SugarHouse bonus code TS250 to get a $250 bonus.
Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST | Watch: FOX
Bills Stadium – Orchard Park, NY
Prop Bet Watch:
- Over 276.5 Passing Yards (-120)
- Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-140)
- Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
The Seahawks are allowing the most passing yards per game (356) and yards per pass attempt, in addition to ranking third worst DVOA against the pass. While this will be a more-intact Seattle defense (Jamal Adams is back, Carlos Dunlap makes his debut, Snacks Harrison was activated) this is still a team that is making another cross-country trip.
Allen hasn’t been great of late, but we are getting some of these numbers at a decreased level in a great matchup. In the first four games of the season, he passed for at least 288 yards in every game- the first three of those went for 300+ yards. In these last four games, Allen has only done it once (at NYJ) against a combo of stiffer competition and bad weather.
It’s also worth noting the success that running QBs have had against the Seahawks this season:
Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST | Watch: CBS
SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA
Prop Bet Watch:
- Over 263.5 Passing Yards (-120)
- Over 35.5 Passing Attempts (-115)
- Over 17.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Of the three QBs that were taken in this year’s draft, the Chargers were “left” with Herbert. Now, you can make the argument that he is having the best season of the trio. While Cincy’s Joe Burrow is leading all of the rookie QBs in numbers, Herbert isn’t too far behind. In six games this season, he has thrown for at least 290 yards four times- he also has at least three passing TDs in each of the last four games.
The Raiders’ pass defense is struggling, ranking eighth worst in yards allowed per game (260.7), tied for sixth worst in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.4) and sixth worst pass defense DVOA this season. Not to mention, Las Vegas only has seven sacks on the QB thus far. Four of its opponents have passed for over 280 yards this season.
And just like Allen above, Herbert has a nice matchup to gain some rushing yards against the Raiders, like many others have done to them already this season. Herbert, himself, is averaging 23.6 rushing yards per game.
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Tom Brady (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) vs. New Orleans Saints
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST | Watch: NBC
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
Prop Bet Watch:
- Over 292.5 Passing Yards (-120)
- Over 39.5 Passing Attempts (-120)
- Over 2.5 Passing TDs (+165)
It’s going to be a whirlwind of drama on Sunday, as WR Antonio Brown makes his Bucs debut on Sunday Night Football. Adding to the uncertainty of the night, Tampa Bay could get WR Chris Godwin back into the lineup. Good luck to the Saints, who would be the first team in the NFL to be tasked with defending AB, Godwin, Mike Evans and Gronk.
I think Brady is smart enough to not just simply force the ball to AB in his first game, knowing the defense could be looking for something like that. This offense has a plentiful stockpile of weapons
Running the football never comes easy against the Saints, who are fourth in run-defense DVOA and third in yards allowed per carry (3.6). This will be a big night for Brady throwing the football, en route to a big Bucs victory.