Last week, we debuted the newest version of our prop bet article by going through the best matchups for each position. It wound up being such a huge hit that we’re going back to the same format. And why wouldn’t we? Talking about the top QBs in the game is always a lot more than talking about Daniel Jones or Sam Darnold.
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In this article, I will evaluate the best value in the QB prop bets for Week 7 of the NFL season. These matchups include Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers taking on Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans, Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints hosting former backup Teddy Bridgewater and the Carolina Panthers while the finale features MVP-favorite Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks traveling to face Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals.
As usual, the odds in this article were brought to you by Bet365 and William Hill.
Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST | Watch: FOX
NRG Stadium – Houston, TX
Quarterbacks: Aaron Rodgers & Deshaun Watson
Prop Bets to Watch: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Any Time TDs
This game has shootout written all over it, especially with the 57-point total. For starters, the Packers’ offense was absolutely embarrassed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense last week, so expect Rodgers & Co. to be clicking on all cylinders. In addition, the Houston defense just isn’t good at all, ranking in the bottom-third yards allowed per pass and rush attempts
On Wednesday’s episode of Taking Sides, our guest Anthony Cervino declared that Green Bay will utilize RB Aaron Jones a lot more in this matchup. While he’s probably not wrong, I have a feeling that both the aerial and ground attacks can be profitable enough for both sides. Plus, Rodgers loves including his RBs in the passing game.
Largest difference in big-time throws and turnover-worthy plays over the past two seasons (PFF)
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 19, 2020
1. Russell Wilson (+46)
2. Aaron Rodgers (+33)
T3. Deshaun Watson (+19)
T3. Patrick Mahomes (+19)
…
Tied for last: Kyle Allen (-13) and Daniel Jones (-13)
Both teams rank in the Top-5 of explosive pass rate (HOU: 2nd, GB: 5th), meaning these are the teams that compile large chunks of yards on their plays the most often. The Packers defense is much more respectable on any given day, but Watson is fully capable of matching Rodgers tit-for-tat on the stat sheet.
In my humble opinion, I believe either QB can exceed whichever prop bet you put in front of them.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST | Watch: FOX
Mercedes-Benz Superdome – New Orleans, LA
Quarterbacks: Dew Brees & Teddy Bridgewater
Prop Bets to Watch: Under – Passing Yards, Passing Attempts
As we’ve seen numerous times already this season, beating the Panthers on the ground is the way to go. Saints RBs Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray will be the guys toting the rock, making life easy on Brees – and that’s exactly what we want on most of his props to go under the number.
Week 7's slowest-paced games (rank in @fboutsiders' situation-neutral pace):#Panthers (24) at #Saints (27) ❄️❄️❄️#49ers (31) at #Patriots (16) ❄️❄️#Buccaneers (21) at #Raiders (22) ❄️
— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) October 21, 2020
For reference, Brees is only the 13th most expensive QB on the DraftKings main slate contest, just above guys like Andy Dalton, Gardener Minshew and the signal-caller on the other side field, Teddy Bridgewater. It’s hard to believe but there are 19 QBs that have more passing yards than Brees this season.
No team in the NFL has yet to throw 40+ pass attempts against the Saints this season. If that’s the case once again, there won’t be a need for Brees to come back with a heavy passing attack. In fact, the two games that New Orleans had control of this season only required Brees to throw 25 and 30 times. The Saints have a pretty good scouting report on Bridgewater since he was in their building over the last two years. If he has a rough day, that will certainly slow down the tempo even further with New Orleans running the ball.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST | Watch: FOX
State Farm Stadium – Glendale, AZ
Quarterbacks: Russell Wilson & Kyler Murray
Prop Bets to Watch: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Rushing TDs
We’ll get to end our Sunday afternoon with an absolute treat as the MVP front-runner faces a guy that could potentially win it one day. Even better, this is a divisional rivalry game that has gotten a lot more competitive because of the Cards’ upgrade at QB.
Let’s start with Wilson, who has been absolutely fantastic this season. In five games, he has thrown 19 TDs against 3 INTs, with 2+ TD passes in each game and 3+ TDs in four of the five. The Cardinals have done a decent job against QBs this season but none all of their opponents have been in that “second tier” of players at the position – Teddy Bridgewater, at 276 yards, is the guy with the most passing yards against them this season. Wilson is multiple steps up in class and we’ll see that take shape on Sunday.
"I think both teams will score a lot and Russell Wilson vs. Kyler Murray will be a treat, but it's the #AZCardinals who win it."#NFL writers share their early predictions for Sunday's #NFL Week 7 showdown between Arizona and the #Seahawks. https://t.co/mORK8FzEy1
— Jeremy Cluff (@Jeremy_Cluff) October 21, 2020
Kyler Murray is coming off a fantastic homecoming performance in Dallas on Monday Night Football and will be looking to capitalize on that big outing. This is a matchup that has benefited nearly every QB taking snaps against the Seahawks. Until Vikings QB only passed for 249 yards in the team’s last game, the Seahawks has allowed four straight QBs to pass for 300+ yards – the three before that threw for at least 390 yards.
Sure, Seattle’s style play will force the opposing QB to be aggressive, but this is a plus-matchup anyway. The 56-point total on the game leads us to believe we’re going to see quite a bit of fireworks on Sunday afternoon.
