Last week, we debuted the newest version of our prop bet article by going through the best matchups for each position. It wound up being such a huge hit that we’re going back to the same format. And why wouldn’t we? Talking about the top RBs in the game is always a lot more fun than talking about Devonta Freeman and Frank Gore.
In this article, I will identify some of the best prop bets on the board for RBs in Week 7. Those matchups include Aaron Jones (Green Bay Packers) against the Houston Texans, Kareem Hunt (Cleveland Browns) at the Cincinnati Bengals, and D’Andre Swift (Detroit Lions) against the Atlanta Falcons.
As usual, the odds in this article were brought to you by Bet365 and William Hill.
Jamaal Williams (Green Bay Packers) at Houston Texans
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST | Watch: FOX NRG Stadium – Houston, TX
Sure, I did do a big writeup for Aaron Rodgers in the QB props article. But they’re both in play, especially against a Houston defense that can’t get out of its own way.
Williams is an absolute smash spot, just like many others before him, against a team that allows the most yards per carry (5.4) and ranks 23rd in run defense DVOA. Take a look at what some of the league’s best have done to the Texans:
I absolutely love the total to go over the zaftig total of 57 points, and that’ll have to mean that Williams is a massive part of the game plan.
Kareem Hunt (Cleveland Browns) at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST | Watch: CBS Paul Brown Stadium – Cincinnati, OH
Props to Watch For: Rushing Attempts, Rushing Yards
This game is expected to have quite a bit of scoring in it, with a total of 50.5 points and nearly 80% of the money heading that way – that’s the good news. The bad news – Hunt comes limping into this game with a questionable tag but are expected to play. Therein lies a possible advantage of taking some under totals on these props, assuming everything stays the same with him in terms of health.
Hunt’s hamstring injury doesn’t appear to be too serious, and it’s not something that would make us feel too optimistic about him reaching a ceiling on any of these props. If anything, the Browns would want to be more careful with Hunt in the short term as Nick Chubb won’t return for another few weeks, at the least.
D’Andre Swift (Detroit Lions) at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST | Watch: FOX Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, GA
Prop Bets to Watch For: Receptions, Rushing+Receiving Yards, TD
Somehow, Alexander Mattison of the Minnesota Vikings wasn’t able to hold true to the “pass catching RBs vs. Falcons” narrative, even in a game they were trailing the entirety of. In fact, Mattison was only able to manage one catch on two targets for two yards – in the entire game.
Prior to the game against the Vikings last week, the Falcons were allowing a ton of targets to those pass catching RBs. Here’s how others at that position have so far this season:
Chris Carson (SEA)
6 rec, 6 tgt, 45 yds, 2 TD
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)
6 rec, 7 tgt, 33 yds
Tarik Cohen (CHI)
3 rec, 6 tgt, 20 yds
Aaron Jones (GB)
5 rec, 5 tgt, 40 yds, TD
Jamaal Williams (GB)
8 rec, 8 tgt, 95 yds
Mike Davis (CAR)
9 rec, 10 tgt, 90 yds, TD
Last week was the first time Swift played more offensive snaps than fellow RB Adrian Peterson. That’s great news, considering this game could wind up being one of the higher scoring ones on the slate.
Let’s also not forget that there’s a bit of a feel-good story to this matchup for Swift, who played his college ball at the University of Georgia. I never like to say that an entire game plan is ever molded to players like this, but there is the possibility that a big chunk play can be drawn up for them. A nice screen pass, or something along those lines, can certainly happen in this setting.
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