Our NFL Computer Picks are chosen using an algorithm that analyzes historical sports data across the NFL to give you the bets that offer the best value bets to beat the NJ Sportsbooks. The Week 15 Thursday Night Football matchup features the New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens.
New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-14.5) – Total: 44.5
Thursday, December 12, 2019 – 8:20 p.m. EST
TNF Week 15 Computer Pick: Ravens (-14.5)
The Thursday Night Football schedule had plenty of great matchups this season, but this will not be one of them. A struggling 5-8 New York Jets team finds itself running into the buzzsaw that is the 11-2 Baltimore Ravens. Our top NFL computer pick is for the Ravens to win this game easily and cover the 14.5-point spread. Let’s dive into the numbers to see why this is the pick we’re choosing.
Thursday Night Football Betting Line: Jets at Ravens
This line initially opened at Ravens -14, but the masses felt like that was an absolute steal against the Jets. Nonetheless, we’re still seeing a large number of public bets (62%) and a high percentage of all money wagered (80%) in favor of the Ravens.
New York is coming off two subpar performances against some of the NFL’s worst teams while Baltimore has a nine-game winning streak, going 6-2-1 ATS over that stretch. Not to mention, the Ravens are 5-1 at home this season while the Jets are 1-5 on the road.
Jets Betting Form
The Jets are a bit dinged up coming into this game, with the statuses of RB Le’Veon Bell (probable), TE Ryan Griffin (doubtful) and S Jamal Adams (questionable) all up in the air.
In an interview this week, QB Sam Darnold said that it would “be fun” to travel to Baltimore on a short week and face the Ravens defense in a hostile environment. What? How is that anyone’s idea of fun? The Ravens rank sixth in sacks (43) and total yards allowed per game while deflecting the third-most passes (99) in the NFL. Darnold has had plenty of easy matchups since returning from the mono/spleen issues, but in two games against some of the NFL’s best pass defenses (Patriots and Jaguars) he threw a combined seven interceptions. If Darnold was seeing ghosts against the Patriots. He just might see the spirits of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed lurking around M&T Bank Stadium on Thursday night.
The Jets defense has been solid this season, ranking second in run defense (78.8 yards per game) and seventh in total yards (320.8). However, a lot of that is fluff. Going against young quarterbacks and teams with no sense of where they are on offense. Thursday’s matchup will be anything but, as they’ll face the guy who will likely take home the MVP award at the end of the season. Things will be especially difficult if Adams isn’t able to go in this one. Not to mention, trying to prepare for a road game on a short week against one of the most dynamic offenses in league history. It’s not an optimistic recipe for success.
Ravens Betting Form
The big question around the Ravens this week is whether QB Lamar Jackson would be available after suffering a quad injury. Fear not, Ravens’ backers and Jackson owners in the final four of the fantasy football playoffs, he said he’s ready to go on the short week. And that’s important, considering Jackson is leading the NFL with 28 TD passes and ranks ninth in rushing yards (1,017) – with an additional seven TDs on the ground. Call them video-game numbers, call them Michael Vick-like numbers, call them whatever you want. Jackson is going to win the NFL’s MVP award and put this Ravens team in a fantastic position to win the Super Bowl.
Jackson could, however, be without one of his best weapons in TE Mark Andrews. The second-year TE is actually leading the Ravens in receiving with 54 catches on 82 targets for 707 yards and seven TDs. This will put a much larger emphasis on the running game with RBs Mark Ingram (who is 113 rushing yards shy of 1,000 on the season) and maybe even some Gus Edwards with the short week of rest. Granted, the Jets are allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game, but we need to look at the level of competition in some of these matchups.
The Ravens defense is solid across with Top-10 rankings against the run and pass while allowing the fifth-fewest points per game (18.2). Darnold has really struggled in the past against these ferocious defenses, and now he’ll have to take his act on the road with a short week to prepare. The Jets running game has been virtually non-existent this season. This will allow the Ravens to sell out and solely focus on defending the pass. New York’s offensive line is among the worst in the NFL, so look for Baltimore to bring tons of pressure and make the young QB uncomfortable all night.
TNF Week 15 Computer Pick: Ravens (-14.5)
Sure, the Ravens have the largest spread of any NFL team on the Week 15 schedule, but there’s a good reason for it. Quite simply the Jets just aren’t that good. Sure, the Jets have won four of the last five, but those came against basement-dwelling opponents. Look for Jackson and the rest of the Ravens running game to dominate this game early and often.