MLB Betting Preview with Lines, Odds and Totals (9/4/20)

Friday is a jam-packed day of baseball, with 20 games on the schedule – some of those contests will take place in the afternoon as the first game of a doubleheader. There are some very intriguing matchups, including a possible World Series matchup between the San Diego Padres and Oakland Athletics.

Yesterday was another winning day, going 2-1 in this article. The New York Mets had a come-from-behind win against the New York Yankees and the 8.5 total was never threatened in a 2-0 win for the Los Angeles Angels over the Padres. The only loss was being on the totally wrong side of the 9.5 total in the Chicago White Sox-Kansas City Royals game – I had the under in a White Sox 11-6 win.

In this article, we’ll take a look at the odds and best value plays we can find from a few of today’s MLB games. All of the odds are according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets

7:10 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Extra Innings

Starting Pitchers

PHI: Jake Arrieta – R (2-4, 6.49 ERA/1.56 WHIP this season)
NYM: Rick Porcello – R (1-4, 6.00 ERA/1.58 WHIP this season)

Total: 9.5 runs | Over: -114 | Under: -107
PHI | Moneyline: +112 | Run Line +1.5: -180
NYM | Moneyline: -129 | Run Line -1.5: +150

Where’s the Money Going? (as of 11 a.m. EST today)

Moneyline: 50/50 % of bets | NYM, 79% of money
Run Line: NYM, 71% of bets | PHI, 67% of money
Total: Over, 81% of bets | Over, 96% of money

Betting Pick: Over 9.5 runs (-114)

This might be my favorite play of the day, but you need to jump on the 9.5 total early. This will undoubtedly be at 10 on all books by the end of the day, so keep that in mind. The implied team total increased +0.4 for the Mets, and only +0.1 for the Phils, but the 9.5 total has remained there.

Both starting pitchers come into this game with 6+ ERAs and 1.50+ WHIPs and the offenses are in peak form. Of course, we know the stigma of both teams – incredibly talented, but shaky bullpens. The Phillies scored six runs in each of the first three meetings with the Mets and according to the betting percentages, it appears like tonight could be the latter’s night. With the number of bets split down the middle, New York is getting close to 80 percent of the money.

Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners

9:10 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Extra Innings

Starting Pitchers

TEX: Kyle Cody – R (0-0, 0.00 ERA/0.92 WHIP this season)
SEA: Yusei Kikuchi – L (1-2, 6.12 ERA/1.40 WHIP this season)

Total: 8.5 runs | Over: -109 | Under: -112
TEX | Moneyline: +102 | Run Line -1.5: +160
SEA | Moneyline: -118 | Run Line +1.5: -195

Where’s the Money Going? (as of 11 a.m. EST today)

Moneyline: TEX, 63% of bets | SEA, 80% of money
Run Line: N/A % of bets | N/A % of money
Total: N/A % of bets | N/A % of money

Betting Pick: Mariners Moneyline (-118)

Right off the bat, I noticed the difference in implied team total movements – TEX: -0.3, SEA: +0.3 – and that makes this Mariners choice an easy one. Of course, there is also the major difference in Texas getting a higher number of bets while Seattle is getting so much of the money.

Cody will be making his first MLB start, although he has pitched in relief before. This is a big moment in a player’s career, and not many of them are usually up to the challenge. Not to mention, the Mariners are well rested, not playing since Monday. Kikuchi is coming off his best outing of the season, so I’d expect him to come back with another one tonight. A good performance from him, and then a well-rested bullpen, should be an easy road to victory.

San Diego Padres at Oakland Athletics

9:40 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Extra Innings

Starting Pitchers

SD: Zach Davies – R (5-2, 2.61 ERA/0.90 WHIP this season)
OAK: Jesus Luzardo – L (2-1, 3.74 ERA/1.37 WHIP this season)

Total: 8.5 runs | Over: -103 | Under: -120
SD | Moneyline: +123 | Run Line +1.5: -175
OAK | Moneyline: -139 | Run Line -1.5: +145

Where’s the Money Going? (as of 11 a.m. EST today)

Moneyline: SD, 65% of bets | OAK, 60% of money
Run Line: SD, 65% of bets | 50/50 % of money
Total: 50/50 % of bets | Under, 91% of money

Betting Pick: Athletics Moneyline (-139)

The Padres’ team total took a whopping -0.5 hit earlier today, giving the appearance that tonight won’t be their night. While the most notable betting percentage is the amount of money on the under, there’s a significant difference in the San Diego getting a majority of bets while Oakland is receiving more money.

I love watching the A’s play, they just always seem to do so many different things right. Luzardo has been great early in his MLB career, and I believe that will continue once again tonight. Just like the Mariners above, the A’s are well-rested, not playing a game since Monday.

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Al Walsh
Al Walsh Chief Sports Writer