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MLB Betting Preview: SF Giants at LA Dodgers (7/26/20)

The two testy NL West rivals square off once again, as the San Francisco Giants face the Los Angeles Dodgers. This will be the finale of a four-game set, with the Dodgers winning the first two.

Tonight’s pitching matchup features Drew Smyly going for San Francisco against Julio Urias for Los Angeles. The Dodgers clearly have the upper hand in this matchup, and we’re seeing the bets line up that way. About five hours before first pitch, 70% of public bets are with LA while 66% of all money wagered is heading in the same direction.

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodger Stadium – Los Angeles, CA – 10:00 p.m. EST (Watch: ESPN)

STARTING PITCHERS

SF: Drew Smyly – L (4-7, 6.24 ERA/1.59 WHIP last season)
LAD: Julio Urias – L (4-3, 2.49 ERA/1.08 WHIIP last season)

Odds and Betting Lines (DraftKings)

Total: 9.5 | Over: +100 | Under: -122
SF | Moneyline: +300 | Run Line (+1.5): +156
LAD | Moneyline: -380 | Run Line (-1.5): -175

Injury List

SF: Austin Slater -OF (Q), Buster Posey -C (O), Brandon Belt -1B(IL), Evan Longoria -3B (IL)
LAD:
Keibert Ruiz (IL),  –

Interesting Stats

Jose Urias Finally Ready to be Full-Time Starter

After years of being flip flopped as a starter and reliever, the Dodgers are finally ready to have Urias be a mainstay in the back end of their rotation. This was once a very highly-touted pitcher in their system, and some of that luster has faded a bit with Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler and Dustin May all in the same rotation. Tonight will be the start of the next chapter in his career.

Drew Smyly Already Pitching for the Second Time This Season

Opening Day was a little bit whacky in its own right, but the Giants need Smyly to step in for an inning – he allowed only a walk while striking out two batters. Tonight, Smyly gets the start in what I imagine to be a short four- or five-inning outing.

Mookie Betts Dominance Against Drew Smyly

This is a matchup that Smyly wishes he could call in sick for. Betts has a strong 7-for-19 history against him with four extra-base hits, including one homer.

Betting Picks

Over 9 runs (-122)

Given the massive juice here, this is the most value we’ll get in the game. The Dodgers have outrageous prices on the moneyline and spread, so the chances of them scoring a lot of runs are a lot more optimistic. Of course the Dodgers will probably win, but it’ll cost you a lot more money to get.

Mookie Betts to Hit HR (+485)

I’m typically not a big fan of these HR props but the value here is too good. Somewhere around +300 is what you’ll see for a marquee hitter in a great matchup. We already know that Betts has been fantastic against Smyly over the course of his career, and the two will likely square off against one another twice tonight.