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MLB Betting Preview: SD Padres at SF Giants (7/30/20)

In part two of their 2020 series, the Padres and Giants face off in San Francisco. In their second games of the season, hurlers Dinelson Lamet (SD) and Kevin Gausman (SF) will toe the rubber. 

San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants

Oracle Park – San Francisco, California – 9:45 PM EST

Game Info/Starting Pitchers:

SDP: Dinelson Lamet – R (Last Season: 4.07 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 1.3 WAR, 73 IP)
SFG: Kevin Gausman – R (Last Season: 5.72 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 1.6 WAR (102.1 IP)

Odds & Betting lines (via PointsBet)

Total: 8 | Over: -121 | Under: +100
SDP | Moneyline: -180 | Run Line (-1.5): –110
SFG | Moneyline: +155 | Run Line (+1.5): -110

Injury List

SDP: RP Jose Castillo, RP Andrez Munoz, RP Trey Wingenter
SFG: IF Aramis Garcia, SP Tyler Beede, RP Jarlin Garcia, C Buster Posey (Opt-out)

Interesting Stats

Cause for Concern?

Although Kevin Gausman only conceded 2 runs in 4 innings of relief against the mighty Dodgers, things look worse under the hood. After facing 18 batters, he only struck out 2–‘good’ for a pitiful 11% K rate, half the league average. Even worse, he only generated swings and misses on 5% of pitches (average = 11%). Gausman has a history of being a solid pitcher, but without strikeouts, he won’t last very long.

Electric, But Will It Last?

In Lamet’s first start against the Diamondbacks, the righty was truly electric. On the night, he struck out 8 of 21 batters while walking only 1. If given no other data, however, I would be hesitant to assume much from one game. After all, no one can dispel years of walk and homer issues that quickly. Fortunately, however, one other important detail surfaced: Lamet is throwing gas. His 97.8 mph fastball average bested his career mark by 2.3 mph! Compared to 2019 starters, Lamet’s fastball would’ve been second-fastest in baseball. He’ll need to repeat it before I truly buy in, but things are looking good for the Dominican pro.

Betting Picks

SF +1.5 (-110)

San Francisco isn’t a good team today, and they likely won’t be for a while. But in this environment, it’s easier to cover than ever. Altogether, the current MLB situation only rewards the elite good teams. With deep rosters and bullpens, the addition of the DH, and depressed scoring (as hitters warm up), merely decent teams can’t establish an edge. Have a bad starter? Just utilize a parade of relievers! With scoring relatively low, it will remain difficult for teams to establish large leads. 

SF ML (+155)

Better yet, San Francisco returns two starters in Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria. Depending on your risk tolerance, it may also make sense to throw a few bucks at the Moneyline.

Now, Lamet could plausibly continue his dominance from his last start and smoothly hand it off to the bullpen, but it’s too early to know for sure. To me, it’s just a bit too aggressive to name a 70-win team from 2019 as a 61% away favorite. If San Diego gives any of their studs a day off, this would look even better for San Fran.