Tuesday’s MLB slate has every team playing on the slate. If you’re looking to catch some baseball action on national TV tonight, the only game you’ll find is the Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros on FS1.
Last night, I went 1-2 to keep my season-long record to a sluggish 7-15 ATS (-$800). I promise to get this thing going in the right direction, so here are two free MLB betting picks to get things picking up again.
Table of contents
Baltimore Orioles (+180) at Minnesota Twins (-200) – Total: 9.5
BAL: Dean Kremer – R (0-4, 6.35 ERA/1.59 WHIP – 34 IP: 32 Ks, 10 HR)
MIN: Jose Berrios – R (4-2, 3.91 ERA/1.11 WHIP – 50.2 IP: 56 Ks, 6 HR)
This should be a nice and easy win for the Twins, which is something that hasn’t easily come this season. However, there’s a distinct mismatch between the two starting pitchers.
Berrios is always a guy that I lean on at Target Field, but he hasn’t been that great there this season. In four starts, he owns a 5.48 ERA in Minnesota, compared to 2.60 in five road starts. That’s OK, I’m not ready to write the guy off just yet. It means that it’s time for the trends to come back around to the mean… Right? Anyone?
Against right-handed bats, Berrios has been much better, allowing opposing hitters to only an .152 average, compared to .313 against lefties. We should see a little more than half of the Orioles’ lineup hitting from that side of the box, but most of the lefties here don’t make me flinch at all.
Kremer has been bopped over the head quite a bit this season, allowing 10 HR in only 34 innings of work. Both sides of the plate have been doing work, and I feel like this is a good series for Minnesota to start making some ground up in the AL Central. Currently, it sits 9.5 games back of the division-leading White Sox.
Typically, when teams get these favored odds in run-line scenarios I feel like I have to take a shot. Berrios has six strikeouts in three of his last four outings and Baltimore ranks dead-last in MLB with a .282 wOBA (weighted on-base average) against right-handed pitching.
Credit to Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) on that stat ^
Betting Pick: Twins -1.5 (-105)
St. Louis Cardinals (+130) at Chicago White Sox (-140) – Total: 8
STL: Jack Flaherty – R (8-0, 2.53 ERA/0.99 WHIP – 53.1 IP: 55 Ks, 4 HR)
CHW: Lucas Giolito – R (3-4, 4.35 ERA/1.19 WHIP – 49.2 IP: 61 Ks, 9 HR)
I have no idea what the hell is going on here, but I want to preface that I know I might lose this bet… and that’s OK, I’m fine with the process on this one. As wrong as I know it may be, I’ll side with the Cardinals in this one. After all, everyone should know the facts.
Despite Flaherty being 9-0 SU/RL (8 of the 9 wins by 3+ runs) this season, the White Sox somehow find themselves as sizeable favorites here. He did allow six runs in the season opener against the Reds, but the versatile righty has been lights out since then. Look, if you want to be the one to bet against Flaherty at this point- do you. I’m not about that life.
Giolito has allowed nine HR in 49.2 innings this season, compared to Flaherty’s four in 53.1 innings. This is going to be a serious pitching duel, and it very well may come down to one run – a potential solo shot. I’m sure both pitchers are going to be fantastic tonight, but I have to go with Flaherty and the Birds here.
Betting Pick: Cardinals ML (+130)