MLB Betting Preview: NY Yankees at PHI Phillies (8/6/20)

The whacky four-game series between the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies will finally conclude on Thursday. This series was supposed to be played last week, but the Phillies had a series with the heavily infected Miami Marlins which made MLB postpone any of their games for the week. Now, Philly will be looking to even the series with New York.

Today’s pitching matchup will be the lefty Jordan Montgomery for the Yanks and the right-hander Zach Eflin making his season debut for the Phils. Montgomery pitched well in his season debut last time out, allowing one run over 5 2/3 innings against the Boston Red Sox.

Offense should be a popular theme today, as the Yankees rank first in weighted on-base average (.359) while the Phillies rank third (.341). Of course, these numbers are somewhat skewed, considering both teams have missed a few games. However, we don’t need advanced metrics to know how much starpower is in each lineup.  

New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies

Citizens Bank Park – Philadelphia, PA
6:05 p.m. EST (Watch: MLB Extra Innings)

Starting Pitchers

NYY: Jordan Montgomery – L (1-0, 1.59 ERA/1.06 WHIP)
PHI: Zach Eflin – R (season debut)

Odds & Betting lines (bet365)

Total: 10 runs | Over: -105 | Under: -115
NYY | Moneyline: -160 | Run Line -1.5: -105
PHI | Moneyline: +140 | Run Line +1.5: -115

Injury List

NYY: Gary Sanchez -C (DTD), Tommy Kahnle -RP (IL), Aroldis Chapman -RP (CV)
PHI: Reggie McClain -SP (PAT)

Interesting Stats

Where’s the Money Going?

As of Thursday (12:20 p.m. EST), the Yankees are getting 80% of bets to win on the money while it’s the Phillies getting 65% of all money wagered. On the run line, though, the Yankees are getting plenty of love with 67% percent of bets and 99% of the money wagered. On the 10-run total, we’re seeing two-thirds of both all bets and all money wagered going toward the over.

Hot Start for Judge

Aaron Judge is off to a start that some of us saw coming in the early exhibition games. Through 11 regular season games, the mashing righty owns a .310 batting average with seven HR and 17 RBI. Now might even be a good time to put some MVP money down on Judge at +600.

What Do We Know About Eflin?

Eflin had a mixed bag in 2019, but it was evident that elite lineups really pounded him into the ground – ATL: 6.61 ERA, LAD: 10.50 ERA, MIL: 7.27 ERA, SD: 7.36. Things were particularly bad in July of last season, as he went 0-4 with an 11.88 ERA in five appearances (four starts). An elite lineup is exactly what Eflin will run into tonight, and it doesn’t help matters that CBP is one of the best hitting ballparks in all of baseball.

Betting Picks

Yankees Run Line -1.5 (-105)

Even as a Phils fan, I can’t justify anything good happening tonight for my boys. As I mentioned, Eflin really struggles against these great offenses and the Yankees are at the top of their game right now. Between Judge and DJ LeMahieu, this lineup has enormous potential each and every night. The moneyline price isn’t that terrible for the Yanks on bet365 at -160, but when you have the opportunity to strike like this, you have to pull the trigger.

Over 10 runs (-105)

This is a really good price on the 10-run total, once again at -105. Obviously, I believe that most of the runs will come from the Yankees’ side of things, but the Phillies just showed what they can do to left-handed pitching yesterday. I am not advocating that they’ll put up another 11-spot like yesterday in Game 1 of the doubleheader, but Montgomery has to deal with guys like Andrew McCutchen, Rhys Hoskins and JT Realmuto – not to mention, Bryce Harper can hit lefties well too.