Monday provides us a great chance for new MLB betting opportunities. Yesterday’s games went 1-1-1 with the Philadelphia Phillies getting the first five-innings win over the Atlanta Braves. In addition, the Los Angeles Angels-Oakland Athletics matchup pushed on the under-9 and the Texas Rangers lost 5-1 to the Seattle Mariners to miss out on the run line.
In this article, we’ll take a look at the odds and best value MLB picks we can find from a few of today’s games.
All of the odds are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals
6:05 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Starting Pitchers
MIA: Pablo Lopez – R (2-1, 2.42 ERA/1.16 WHIP this season)
WSH: Austin Voth – R (0-2, 5.00 ERA/1.44 WHIP this season)
Total: 9 runs | Over: -113 | Under: -109
MIA | Moneyline: +102 | Run Line +1.5: -210
WSH | Moneyline: -117 | Run Line -1.5: +170
Where’s the Money Going? (as of 10:30 a.m. EST today)
Moneyline: MIA, 56% of bets | MIA, 84% of money
Run Line: WSH, 67% of bets | 50/50 % of money
Total: Under, 53% of bets | Under, 98% of money
Betting Pick: Marlins Moneyline (+102)
These two teams have split the first four games of this unusual five-game series, so this will be a compelling battle. The Marlins do have the much better pitcher in this matchup, and that’s what we’ll ride to a hopeful victory. The Nationals don’t have the same type of firepower in their lineup that we’re used to, which will make it a lot more difficult to get the victory today. With so much money coming in on the under, it’s probably a good sign that Lopez will have a great outing. Washington is tied for having the biggest team-total decrease (-0.6) on the slate – along with the next two teams we’ll discuss.
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Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers
8:05 p.m. EST | Watch: ESPN+
Starting Pitchers
OAK: Jesus Lazardo – L (2-0, 3.67 ERA/1.37 WHIP this season)
TEX: Lance Lynn – R (3-0, 1.37 ERA/0.81 WHIP this season)
Total: 7.5 runs | Over: -115 | Under: -105
OAK | Moneyline: -148 | Run Line -1.5: +114
TEX | Moneyline: +128 | Run Line +1.5: -134
Where’s the Money Going? (as of 10:30 a.m. EST today)
Moneyline: OAK, 53% of bets | OAK, 75% of money
Run Line: OAK, 73% of bets | OAK, 81% of money
Total: Under, 56% of bets | Under, 99% of money
Betting Pick: Under 7.5 runs (-105)
We would have loved to get this total at the initial 8.5 that we currently see, but let’s deal with what we can for now – plus, you can even buy up a run at a bigger cost. Both of these starting pitchers are fantastic in their own right, particularly Lynn who has been so good at home with a 2-0 record and 1.06 ERA in three home starts. Luzardo is doing big things already in the majors, and is coming off a scoreless 6 1/3 inning performance in his last start against Arizona.
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks
9:40 p.m. EST | Watch: ESPN
Starting Pitchers
COL: Ryan Castellani – R (0-1, 3.77 ERA/0.98 WHIP this season)
ARZ: Merrill Kelly – R (3-2, 2.59 ERA/0.99 WHIP this season)
Total: 9 runs | Over: -121 | Under: +100
COL | Moneyline: +138 | Run Line +1.5: -150
ARZ | Moneyline: -162 | Run Line -1.5: +125
Where’s the Money Going? (as of 10:30 a.m. EST today)
Moneyline: COL, 52% of bets | ARZ, 78% of money
Run Line: COL, 52% of bets | ARZ, 92% of money
Total: 50/50 % of bets | Under, 69% of money
Betting Pick: Diamondbacks Run Line -1.5 (+125)
We’ve got plenty of great trends to focus on with the D-Backs, as so much money is heading their way. This will also be a battle of struggling teams – Arizona has lost five straight while Colorado has dropped seven straight, 10 of the last 11, 12 of the last 14. Castellani got rocked in his last start, allowing eight hits and five runs over 5 2/3 innings of work. It will be nice for the D-Backs to get back home, where they are 8-4 this season.
As a side note, the over might be a compelling play since the teams combined to score at least 15 runs in each of the three meetings this season – two of those three games had exactly 20 runs in them.
