It’ll be another fun Sunday of MLB action as the entire league takes the field.
Yesterday’s article was another profitable endeavor this week, going 2-1 on the day. I was not feeling the matchup for my Philadelphia Phillies against the hated New York Mets, who covered the run line. In the Milwaukee Brewers-Cleveland Indians matchup, I split the two bets, with the total going under 7.5 runs but the Indians being on the winning side was not what I wanted.
In this article, we’ll take a look at the odds and best value plays we can find from a few of today’s MLB games. All of the odds are according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
DraftKings MLB Betting Offer
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
1:10 p.m. EST | Watch: ESPN+
Starting Pitchers
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (4-2, 2.45 ERA/0.86 WHIP this season)
NYM: Jacob deGrom – R (2-1, 1.76 ERA/0.90 WHIP this season)
Total: 7.5 runs | Over: -103 | Under: -120
PHI | Moneyline: +135 | Run Line +1.5: -177
NYM | Moneyline: -159 | Run Line -1.5: +148
Where’s the Money Going? (as of 11:30 a.m. EST today)
Moneyline: PHI, 53% of bets | NYM, 59% of money
Run Line: PHI, 63% of bets | PHI, 92% of money
Total: Over, 63% of bets | Over, 72% of money
Betting Pick: Over 7.5 runs (-103)
It’s odds to see the percentages in favor of the total going over when you have two of MLB’s best arms in the game. deGrom and Nola have both been fantastic against today’s opponent over the course of their career – a span of around 15 starts.
Where I can see this total rising is late in the game, with both of these bullpens being very shaky at times. There could be an excellent live-betting opportunity here after six innings, so definitely take a look at the lines then.
San Diego Padres at Oakland Athletics
4:10 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Starting Pitchers
SD: Garrett Richards – R (1-2, 4.63 ERA/1.40 WHIP this season)
OAK: Mike Fiers – R (4-1, 4.86 ERA/1.43 WHIP this season)
Total: 10.5 runs | Over: -108 | Under: -113
SD | Moneyline: -117 | Run Line -1.5: +133
OAK | Moneyline: +100 | Run Line +1.5: -159
Where’s the Money Going? (as of 11:30 a.m. EST today)
Moneyline: SD, 60% of bets | OAK, 89% of money
Run Line: 50/50 % of bets | OAK, 57% of money
Total: 50/50 % of bets | Over, 93% of money
Betting Pick: A’s Moneyline (+100)
We’ve got ourselves a case of reverse line movement, as the Padres moneyline increased while the A’s are getting the overwhelming majority of the money. Over his career, Richards in 1-3 with a 4.43 ERA in 11 appearances (nine starts) in Oakland. Overall, Richards is 2-4 with a 4.33 ERA in 17 appearances (13 starts) against the A’s. Fiers has been amazing at home in Oakland since being acquired by Detroit in 2018, notching a 14-2 record.
It’s also interesting to note the huge 10.5 total in Oakland, which is such a rarity. In fact, the A’s have only had a double-digit total once in their games this season. Probably a good indicator that we’ll see some runs from them.
St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
7:00 p.m. EST | Watch: ESPN
Starting Pitchers
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (1-2, 2.77 ERA/0.92 WHIP this season)
CHC: Jon Lester – L (2-1, 5.11 ERA/1.32 WHIP this season)
Total: 12.5 runs | Over: -120 | Under: +102
STL | Moneyline: -108 | Run Line -1.5: +138
CHC | Moneyline: -108 | Run Line +1.5: -165
Where’s the Money Going? (as of 11:30 a.m. EST today)
Moneyline: STL, 53% of bets | CHC, 63% of money
Run Line: N/A % of bets | N/A % of money
Total: Under, 59% of bets | Over, 79% of money
Betting Pick: Over 12.5 runs (-120)
It may seem like we’re paying a ton of money to get over 12.5 runs because, well, we are. However, the hitters at Wrigley Field will have the massive advantage of batting with 18-20 mph winds at their backs. Not to mention, Lester is a guy that can give up runs without the aid of wind. Hudson could be a little bit off his game, considering he got pushed a day back because of Saturday’s doubleheader.
This is really all about the heavy winds blowing out. A routine fly ball can turn into a home run will quick in these conditions.
