The MLB season starts to head down the home stretch now that we have passed Labor Day Weekend. In most cases, all 30 teams have slightly below 20 games left to go in the regular season.
Yesterday’s article was another profitable one, going 2-1 for the people. The Philadelphia Phillies had a roller coaster day en route to the 9-8 victory over the New York Mets while the San Francisco Giants came away with the close win against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The only blemish on yesterday’s slate was the New York Yankees allowing 10 runs in the bottom of the sixth to the Toronto Blue Jays, and later losing the game.
In this article, we’ll take a look at the odds and best value MLB plays from a few of today’s games. All of the odds are according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians
6:10 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Network
Starting Pitchers
KC: Jakob Junis – R (0-1, 4.32 ERA/1.44 WHIP this season)
CLE: Triston McKenzie – R (2-0, 1.69 ERA/0.75 WHIP this season)
Total: 9 runs | Over: +100 | Under: -120
KC | Moneyline: +185 | Run Line +1.5: -112
CLE | Moneyline: -225 | Run Line -1.5: -107
Where’s the Money Going? (as of 11 a.m. EST today)
Moneyline: CLE, 73% of bets | KC, 90% of money
Run Line: CLE, 95% of bets | KC, 76% of money
Total: 50/50 % of bets | 50/50 % of money
Betting Pick: Royals Run Line +1.5: -112
For the first time this season, I’ll be using the plus run line to my advantage. The betting percentages here are telling quite the story, with the number of bets clearly in Cleveland’s favor while KC is getting so much of the money. Taking the run line this time, though, we’re giving ourselves a little extra cushion.
I actually picked the Royals to win in this same exact pitching matchup last week, and again there was plenty of money backing on them. Part of that thought process is because Junis is a solid pitcher and we don’t know much about McKenzie just yet – despite his great start.
Chicago White Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates
7:05 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Starting Pitchers
CHW: Dylan Cease – R (5-2, 3.29 ERA/1.34 WHIP this season)
PIT: Joe Musgrove – R (0-4, 6.62 ERA/1.64 WHIP this season)
Total: 9.5 runs | Over: -115 | Under: -106
CHW | Moneyline: -143 | Run Line -1.5: +110
PIT | Moneyline: +120 | Run Line +1.5: -130
Where’s the Money Going? (as of 11 a.m. EST today)
Moneyline: CHW, 66% of bets | PIT, 78% of money
Run Line: CHW, 97% of bets | CHW, 99% of money
Total: Over, 77% of bets | Over, 99% of money
Betting Pick: Pirates Moneyline (+120)
Right off the bat, I’m seeing a huge difference in implied teams totals – CHW: -0.4, PIT: +0.3 – and that’s usually an indication of which team will win. We’re also seeing quite a bit of bets on the White Sox while the Pirates are getting the majority of the money. This could be a sign that Chicago could mail it in on the opening night of their final series on a 10-day road trip.
Musgrove has struggled a great deal but does have a solid bullpen behind him, allowing a 2.74 ERA over the last 19 games. Seeing as how the White Sox ITT dropped so much, that probably means that he’s in for his best outing of the season. On the flip side, Cease has been solid this season but it’s looking like the Pirates can chip him up a little bit tonight.
Milwaukee Brewers at Detroit Tigers
7:10 p.m. EST | Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Starting Pitchers
MIL: Adrian Houser – R (1-3, 4.97 ERA/1.47 WHIP this season)
DET: Spencer Turnbull – R (3-2, 3.89 ERA/1.38 WHIP this season)
Total: 9 runs | Over: +100 | Under: -121
MIL | Moneyline: -150 | Run Line -1.5: +110
DET | Moneyline: +130 | Run Line +1.5: -130
Where’s the Money Going? (as of 11 a.m. EST today)
Moneyline: 50/50 % of bets | MIL, 57% of money
Run Line: DET, 57% of bets | MIL, 65% of money
Total: Over, 69% of bets | Over, 81% of money
Betting Pick: Brewers Run Line -1.5 (+110)
This is another head-scratching game that has clear indicators on which way things are heading. Looking at the ITTs for both teams, the Tigers dropped -0.3 while the Brewers increased +0.3 since the open.
The Tigers are coming off a road trip that could eventually end their postseason hopes. At this point, the Brewers would seemingly have a better chance of making the postseason, based on the talent that is on the roster alone.
