The Mets took the opener of this series yesterday afternoon in front of a huge crowd of their fans that made the quick trip down I-95. While tonight is a school night, we probably won’t see it quite as crazy, but luckily there’s a marquee pitching matchup to fill our appetites. The Nationals sit comfortably in that top NL Wild Card spot, while the Mets are four games out of the second and final spot.
Mets Betting Form
Jacob deGrom had another bout of bad luck in his last start, allowing two homers to the Cubs Victor Caratini en route to a 4-1 loss. However, there’s something about this matchup against the Nationals that bring out the best in him. deGrom owns a 1-0 record to go along with a microscopic 0.53 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 17 innings of work – a span of three starts.
The Mets’ offense has gotten back on track over the last few days, scoring at least six runs in four of the last six games. While this matchup against one of the best pitchers in baseball doesn’t usually provide much optimism, they probably won’t need to score many runs with deGrom on the mound.
Nationals Betting Form
Max Scherzer recently came off the injured list at the end of August. The Nationals haven’t been extending him much in these first two starts since, letting him throw a total of 8 1/3 innings. Tonight, however, could be a regular outing, considering his workload did increase gradually in those outings. In three starts against the Mets this season, Scherzer has a 1-1 record and 2.70 ERA and 28 strikeouts in 20 innings of work – a span of three starts.
The Nationals’ offense just hasn’t been able to figure out deGrom yet, but they’re certainly not alone. They were able to pick on Orioles and Marlins pitching in the four games before Monday. However, tonight’s task is certainly one that can have them scratching their heads all night.
Betting Tip: Mets (+124)
This will be the third time that deGrom and Scherzer go head to head, and the Mets have taken each of those first two meetings. Look for more of the same to continue, with the Mets needing this game a lot more and deGrom likely to rebound after losing a game.
Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox (-115)
Time: 7:10 p.m. EST
MIN: Randy Dobnak – R (0-0, 0.00 ERA/1.63 WHIP)
BOS: Rick Porcello – R (12-10, 5.42 ERA/1.41 WHIP)
Time is starting to run out on the Red Sox season if it hasn’t already. They sit 5.5 games out of the last AL Wild Card spot and a matchup against one of the best teams in baseball certainly doesn’t bode well either. The Twins are looking to put the finishing touches on their run at the AL Central crown and could put the finishing touches on the Red Sox in the process.
Twins Betting Form
This will be the first MLB start of Randy Dobnak’s career, so that’ll be interesting to see how this role fares him. Dobnak has been quite lucky in these appearances out of the bullpen, considering he’s allowed more hits than innings pitched in all three of those outings, but only allowing two runs (both unearned) in total.
The Twins’ offense is one of the best in baseball and moving into Fenway Park for a few days should only help their numbers. It’ll be interesting to see how this matchup goes against an improving pitcher for the Red Sox, setting up a very intriguing battle between the sides.
Red Sox Betting Form
That aforementioned pitcher that has been rapidly improving is Rick Porcello, who has now allowed three runs or fewer in five of the last seven starts. Granted, he’s had most of this success against some of the lesser teams in baseball, but the Red Sox will take any sign of improvement from their pitch staff considering all the injuries they’ve faced. Porcello did skill the Twins earlier this season for seven runs of shutout ball while striking out eight.
It did the Red Sox’ offense some good to get out of Boston for a while. They put up some big games out West and will look to continue that success back at home. As mentioned earlier, tonight’s matchup against Dobnak certainly provides plenty of optimism since he allows so many hits.
Betting Tip: Red Sox (-115)
The matchup of starting pitchers gives the advantage to the Red Sox in this one. Not to mention, Porcello’s earlier performance against the Twins bodes well. All in all, we’ve got a desperate Red Sox bunch looking to hang in the thick of the AL Wild Card race and that should get them the win tonight.
Houston Astros at Milwaukee Brewers
Time: 7:40 p.m. EST
HOU: Zack Greinke – R (14-4, 2.99 ERA/1.01 WHIP)
MIL: Jordan Lyles – R (9-8, 4.55 ERA/1.36 WHIP)
Yesterday’s series opener got off to an exciting start as the Astros won in extra innings – that coming after the Brewers tied it up in the ninth inning on a Christian Yelich homer. The Brewers need to pick it up if they want to get back to the postseason, sitting four games back of the final NL Wild Card spot. On the other hand, the Astros will look to just keep tacking on wins to gain home-field advantage throughout the postseason as they remain tied with the Dodgers and Yankees for the most wins (90) in MLB.
Astros Betting Form
After allowing two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts to open his Astros’ career, Zack Greinke got rocked for five runs in 5 2/3 innings against the Rays in a 9-8 loss. He should be able to get back on track against a Brewers’ offense that is struggling mightily at the moment.
Not to mention, Greinke gets to have some fun at the plate again, where he has three homers and a ridiculous .883 OPS.
As for the actual Astros’ offense, they’ll find themselves in a very tough matchup. Tonight’s opponent is on one of the best runs of his career and the Astros also lose the designated hitter in the NL ballpark.
Brewers Betting Form
Jordan Lyles has looked magnificent since putting on a Brewers’ uniform, allowing one earned run or fewer in five of those six starts. And if you think he’s doing this against subpar competition, you’d be completely wrong. In his last start, Lyles shut down a scorching-hot Cardinals lineup en route to getting the victory.
The Brewers’ offense is averaging 2.5 runs per game over the last eight contests, and things probably won’t get any better going up against Greinke – especially after coming off a loss. It’s quite the mystery as to why Milwaukee can’t get it going offensively, considering the lineup these guys are putting out on a daily basis.
Betting Tip: Under 9
We’re going back to the well on the total going under, considering all of the reasons listed above. Mainly, the two starting pitchers, and the current form of Lyles and the rebound aspect for Greinke. The Brewers’ offense certainly takes the pressure off this bet, though, with all of their struggles at the plate over the last week.
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