The Braves manhandled Aaron Nola and the Phillies in the series opener, greatly hurting their chances to stay afloat in the NL Wild Card. Having already been beaten with their ace on the mound, you have to wonder where Philly’s level of confidence is at. And it doesn’t help matters that Atlanta has a distinct advantage in this game.
Odds Analysis: Braves at Phillies
Almost immediately after the majority of games ended last night, the Braves’ IRT (implied run total) increased +0.3 while Phillies went the opposite direction at -0.3. In addition, Atlanta’s moneyline at PointsBet increased from -132 to -165.
Braves Betting Form
Max Fried has been an unbelievable surprise for the Braves this season and is tied for most wins (16) in the National League. His last start was simply magnificent, pitching seven innings of shutout ball while allowing one hit and no walks and striking out nine against a potent Nationals’ lineup. If Fried has any weak spots, though, it is his matchup against the Phillies – he’s got a 6.94 ERA in four appearances (two starts) this season.
The Braves are one of the best teams in baseball against left-handed pitching, and they did hit the opposing starter well the only time they saw him this season.
Phillies Betting Form
Jason Vargas has a mixed bag of results since joining the Phillies, but this doesn’t appear to be a spot where he’ll succeed. The Braves just throttled Nola last night, so facing Vargas should seem like a walk in the park.
As we mentioned above, the Phils have performed incredibly well against Fried this season and not many teams can say that about themselves. After laying a dud against Mike Foltynewicz last night, they should be motivated to come back with a decent offensive performance on Tuesday – keyword: should.
Betting Pick: Over 9.5
Both teams have proven this season that they can hit the opposing starter for each team. That should lead bettors into good start heading in the right direction to getting over the total in this game.
There hasn’t been any movement at the opening on the moneyline or the total. The only change has been in the IRTs, where the Mets received a slight +0.1 increase and D-Backs got a -0.1 decrease.
Diamondbacks Betting Form
Zac Gallen has been unbelievable in his rookie season, allowing three runs or fewer in all 13 of his starts. The right-hander is coming off one of his best outings, a seven-inning shutout masterpiece with only one hit and one walk allowed while striking out eight Padres.
Much like many that came before them, the Diamondbacks’ offense was completely shut down by Jacob deGrom last night. Tonight’s matchup against the Mets will come a bit easier but will still have plenty of obstacles in the way.
Mets Betting Form
Zack Wheeler is starting to get back on the good foot, with back-to-back solid road outings in each of his last two starts. He gave up four runs over seven innings in his only appearance against the D-Backs this season, but three of those runs came via two homers in the sixth inning. Nonetheless, Wheeler struck out nine D-Backs that night and was able to get the win.
Betting Pick: Under 8
Both of these starting pitchers are on top of their games and that should give bettors a clear path to keeping runs off the scoreboard. Typically, when we have pitchers of this skill level, they’ll push themselves to out-do the other. Plus, two guys named Zack (one without the K) matching up against one another – what could possibly go wrong?
The Astros absolutely clobbered the A’s by the score of 15-0 last night, taking an 11-0 lead after two innings. Luckily, the A’s still hold on to that second and final American League Wild Card spot by a half-game. However, if they play a few more games like they did last night, they’ll be sitting on the outside of the postseason party when it’s all said and done.
Odds Analysis: Athletics at Astros
Not surprisingly, the Astros got a ton of bets with BetMGM at the open last night. After that mega-blowout on Monday, it was only right that everyone jumped all over the Astros. Houston received a +0.2 IRT increased while Oakland dropped down -0.2.
Athletics Betting Form
Tanner Roark has been outstanding since coming to Oakland, but fly-ball pitchers don’t tend to do well with the small dimensions at Minute Maid Park. Just as we saw last night, the Astros jumped all over a very good pitcher in Mike Fiers, and tonight’s matchup against Roark is another one they can certainly take advantage of.
The A’s offense typically does well against left-handed pitching, but they have not fared well against the opposition this season. If there was a time to face that lefty, though, this would be the time.
Astros Betting Form
That lefty we’re speaking of – Wade Miley. The crafty veteran left-hander has done a great job against the A’s this season, posting a 1.83 ERA in three meetings. However, Miley didn’t even record an out in his last start against the lowly Mariners, and that could be a cause for concern.
As we mentioned, Roark’s fly-ball pitching methods are a big cause for concern at this ballpark. It’s quite the number, but the Astros have scored 36 runs over the last two games. Let’s all say a prayer for Mr. Roark.
Betting Pick: Over 10
You can make the argument that Houston will cover 10 runs all by itself. Taking the Astros has plenty of value here, but it’s tough to fully trust Miley after that last start against the Mariners. We should have more faith in runs being scored, with a few homers being hit in the process.
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