NYM: Marcus Stroman – R (7-13, 3.42 ERA/1.34 WHIP)
The Mets have taken the first three games of this series between teams still vying for the playoffs. Today, they’ll look to complete the rare four-game sweep and possibly put some distance between themselves and the D-Backs. Both starting pitchers have a lot to prove in this one, so it should certainly be an interesting matinee affair.
Odds Analysis: Diamondbacks at Mets
Since the line opened, the total dropped from 8.5 to 8.0 and both teams took a hit on their implied run totals (D-Backs: -0.3, Mets: -0.2). The Mets’ moneyline odds also increased slightly, from -126 to -135. That shouldn’t come as a surprise, considering they won the first three games of this series.
Diamondbacks Betting Form
Alex Young struck out a career-high 12 batters in his last outing, a 2-0 win against the Reds. He’ll need a repeat performance if the D-Backs don’t want to get swept in this four-game series.
The D-Backs have struggled mightily on offense since landing in New York. However, they did touch today’s opposing starting pitcher for six runs over 5 2/3 innings earlier this season. Perhaps, familiarity can be their friend today.
Mets Betting Form
Marcus Stroman still hasn’t had that “trademark” start as a member of the Mets. Now would be the time to do so, considering the D-Backs have only scored three runs in as many games of this series. Stroman hasn’t been crushed in any starts, but he also hasn’t done what he was brought here to do – completely dominate the opposition.
The Mets’ offense caught a break early and busted out for nine runs last night. Despite being one of the better teams against left-handed pitching, today’s matchup won’t be easy.
Betting Pick: Diamondbacks +124
The most dangerous team in baseball is a desperate one. Look for the D-Backs to finally make their mark in this series, especially since they beat up on Stroman earlier this season. This offense is too talented to be shut down for an entire four-game series.
In a shocking series of events, the Rockies have taken the first two games against the Cardinals. Not only that, but the first two games of the series have only produced a total of three runs in each contest. While Coors Field isn’t known for its defensive ways, there’s not a lot of evidence suggesting that’ll change today.
Odds Analysis: Cardinals at Rockies
With quite a bit movement early on. The total went from 13.0 to 12.5, with 69 percent of the bets coming in on the under; two straight games of three total runs scored will do that. Also, the Cardinals’ moneyline odds increased from -155 to -166. 73 percent of public bettors expect them not to get swept in Colorado.
Cardinals Betting Form
Miles Mikolas has been solid over his last three starts, allowing three runs or fewer – one run or fewer in two of them. Not to mention, Mikolas has 22 strikeouts over his last 17 innings of work. He’ll be facing a Rockies’ offense that we’re not accustomed to. The boys from the Rocky Mountains have scored three runs or fewer in seven straight games.
You have to wonder if the altitude is getting to the Cardinals’ offense as well. After scoring a total of 24 runs in its previous three games, St. Louis has now scored a total of four in its last three.
Rockies Betting Form
Tim Melville has been solid in three of his four outings this season, allowing two runs or fewer in those. His only hiccup came against the Pirates, and that was at Coors Field. Unfortunately, there’s not enough correlation to link that bad outing to him being ineffective at this venue. Melville has been pretty damn good for the most part, and we expect that to continue.
Betting Tip: Under 12.5
With two pitchers in peak form, and two offenses struggling to find their rhythm, we’re going back to the well. Coors Field is often a place where offenses go to regain their form, but this won’t be one of those times. Mikolas and Melville will make sure that doesn’t happen.
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (18-5, 2.52 ERA/0.77 WHIP)
This series has been absolutely crazy, as the Astros opened with 15 runs and the A’s answered back the next night with 21. Oakland even took last night’s meeting, giving them a 5-2 record against Houston over the last seven meetings. With the Astros’ main man on the bump tonight, can they turn the tide?
Odds Analysis: Athletics at Astros
The Astros got a massive moneyline increase from -230 to -255 after the open. In addition, they gained a +0.2 implied run total increase while the A’s got a -0.2 decrease.
Athletics Betting Form
Homer Bailey has been effective in his last few outings, but his last against the Astros – not so much. In that outing, he allowed nine runs in two innings en route to an 11-1 win for Houston. While Bailey has gotten away with facing lesser teams, the Astros are certainly not one of them.
It won’t be easy for the A’s, considering they’ll be facing one of MLB’s best. Even more evident is how much they’ve struggled against him, scoring only three runs in 21 innings.
Astros Betting Form
Justin Verlander has faced some weak competition of late, but he didn’t make the schedule. In fact, he’s done his job and then some, allowing four hits or less in five straight starts. Verlander has simply owned Oakland this season, posted a 2-0 record and 1.29 ERA in three starts – a span of 21 innings. Look for him to do the same tonight.
Right-handed batters are hitting .304 (compared to .220) against Bailey this season, and the Astros have plenty of them. Guys like George Springer, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman can get the party popping in no time. Look for them to hop on Bailey early and often, just as they did last time they faced him.
Betting Pick: Astros – 130 (1.5-run line)
We’ve got plenty of narratives to foresee the Astros clubbing the A’s tonight. Look for them to get to Bailey early and often, giving Verlander more than enough run support.
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